The Black Swan is signature Nassim Nicholas Taleb-a veritable scholar and social thinker. His theory on randomness and his analyses to understand that rare event-the Black Swan-is tantalising and revolutionary. But as a philosopher, Taleb is not moulded like the "classicists." Plato, Rousseau, Hobbes, and Nietzsche. He is neither skeptic nor religionist-upholding the flag of pre-ordainment. He is a "quant" (quantitative analyst in a financial institution), and throws the gauntlet down on contemporary empiricists. No one escapes his microscope. Could sociologists predict the next social ill, or the historian, the next civil war? What about the stock broker? Do we know when the next financial tsunami is scheduled?
The author identifies some notable Black Swans-just to cement his argument. The 9/11 terror attack; the 1987 stock market debacle; and the Lebanon civil war-all of which exploded undetected, creating a whole new reality. In fact, who could have predicted the growth of Christianity and the lightening spread of Islam in the 7th century? Really, we are not as smart as we think! And it is hard to dismiss Taleb's sweeping indictments. In support of Taleb, I could add another Black Swan-the meteoric rise of the gold index when only a few years ago, speculators on the commodity was pejoratively called "gold bugs."
In rejecting theorising based on observation; and in questioning our propensity to infer and to contextualise events based on our own insularity, the author challenges us to reconfigure our thought patterns and think anew.
If we accept his invitation, we would better understand life's vicissitudes, and may be just assuage, if not prevent the unpredictable, the improbable and the alarm of the Black Swan. This is tricky business that could get quite analytical, as the reader is pulled into the author's damning diagnosis of inductive and deductive logic. The author beckons us to observe properties that will dismiss our theories or beliefs.
In other words, "disconfirming instances are far more powerful in establishing truths." The world he argues is too complex for generalisation and simplifications. Taleb, in his own words, doesn't want to be a "sucker." The author is detailed, using an admixture of anecdotes and samplings from his trade-statistics. He can be facetious and witty in a subject that is critical to understanding modes and patterns of thinking. He raises the stature of (relatively obscure names), Henri Poincare and Edward Lorenz (author of the chaos theory).
He denounces "empirically blind savants," rejects the Gaussian Belle Curve fixation, and champions a kind of mathematical or empirical skepticism. He advances the theory of Professor Raimund Popper, who states that predicting historical events is possible if one can predict technological innovations. In a sense, the author is a Contrarian, even an Iconoclast. The Black Swan scores as it rails against the herd mentality-our need to be part of the social pattern. This, the author argues, prevents us from predicting the next Black Swan. But can we be the rugged individuals that the author asks of us? Hardly so.
It is Taleb himself who writes about our biological make up and the properties of the left brain-how it allows us to see things, cleared of interpretation. In other words, we need order to make sense of things. Maybe, as much as we try, we find comfort in the herd. Conversely, we are not automatons, and free will allows for that wild swing and intractability-that could well impact history.
The author understands the complex nature of his undertaking and can only caution that, "we don't succumb to formulaic, close minded, self serving, and commoditised thinking." He wants us to be open minded. Only then can we better fathom Black Swan phenomenon. But will we ever, in truth? Interestingly, at the end of his discourse, the author narrates his day to day uncertainty during the 2006 Hezbollah/Israeli conflict. This should be enough for us to reflect on our prowess, if not, innate limitations of predicting the unpredictable. Upon completing this monumental book, the last verse of another inspiring book reverberated within. It reads: "And no man knows what he will earn tomorrow and no man knows in what land he will die. And Verily, God is the Knower, Aware of all things." (The Qur'an: 31: 34.) If only Taleb explored the skepticism of Sufism and other forms of mysticism. Then again, he did state that he had little or no intention of so doing.
The Black Swan
Random House, New York 2007
ISBN978-1-4000-6351-2.
Available: Amazon.com; Barnes and Boble.com
Rating: *****: Essential
Dr Glenville Ashby
New York correspondent
The Guardian Media Group
