Finance Minister Colm Imbert is expected to deliver a deficit Budget today when he presents the Dr Keith Rowley-led Government's first Budget, which will steer T&T through 2015-2016 navigating the oil price reduction.
People's National Movement (PNM) officials yesterday also hinted of the possibility of a "small" gas price hike for super gasoline, but expected the diesel price to remain the same.
They said a decision on that and other crucial aspects of the Budget were to be taken by the PNM Government leadership in final meetings between last night and today. But officials said they wouldn't describe the Budget as an austerity package.
The 2015-2016 Budget will be the first such delivery for Imbert, an engineer. It's being presented a month shy of the PNM's general election win.
The presentation will be made at 1.30 pm as the very first order of business for the new Eleventh Parliament.
Improved revenue collection measures are also expected.
They speculated the package may stay within the $68 billion line (and $4.3 billion deficit) of the past People's Partnership administration's 2014-2015 Budget. They added it might avoid "drastic jumps in expenditure" and focus on various policy measures.
PNM officials said while the property tax has been anticipated, today's Budget content may more pave the way for the introduction of that next year, rather than introduce it immediately this year. They said the economic situation has made the party's proposed Revenue Authority a "must."
Government, noting the economy, recently said people shouldn't panic but also pointedly noted T&T couldn't continue operating with the US$80 oil price level when the price was now US$40. The Labour Minister has also noted the "pie is a reducing pie."
The Budget is expected to continue pursing a construction programme to incentivise the construction sector, sources said. They added the housing thrust and redevelopment of East Port-of-Spain will be key. Plans to commence a mass transit system - but not necessarily the proposed Rapid Rail - are also expected, they said.
The PP Government pegged the last Budget at an oil price of US$80 per barrel and US$2.75 gas price. PNM sources said Government, in recent days, had been considering an oil price between US$45 and $55.
PNM sources said the Budget will be rooted in the "realities" of the oil price drop and the new administration may be able to keep manifesto promises - including assorted first-year pledges - by trimming waste and make work programmes. They said revelations will be made in ministers' Budget contributions, on situations over the past term which would justify cuts/streamlining of programmes such as URP, CEPEP or GATE funding.
They said a few of the 14 promises of the PNM's First-Year Initiative Plan - issuing 10-year passports and introducing local constabularies in local government regions - might be implementable, and others would have to be balanced with revenue earning.
The PNM manifesto also promised a 12.5 per cent reduction on VAT.
Based on the Central Bank's 2015 VAT returns per VAT collection period, this could cost around $175 million (per VAT collection period) or around $1.5 billion annually, experts say.
PNM officials projected the Budget would likely keep the VAT reduction promise, saying more revenue would be obtained if collection efficiency was improved.
Protect vulnerable
However, Opposition leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar, in a pre-Budget call, yesterday said she hoped the PNM would protect the vulnerable.
"When Finance Minister Colm Imbert presents his budget tomorrow (today), we'll see whether the Rowley administration intends to protect jobs and the vulnerable, keep the construction sector moving and build partnerships with the private sector," Persad-Bissessar said.
"Protecting jobs and the most vulnerable, keeping the construction sector moving and building partnerships with the private sector are central to consolidating and building the economic strength and stability of T&T. And of course, the new Government's crime fighting initiatives would be most welcome given the upsurge in murders."
Adding that her administration always worked to guard the vulnerable and middle class in a period of economic adjustments, Persad-Bissessar said: "I hope that in all of the proposals examined by Government, we do not see the burden of economic adjustment being passed on to the most vulnerable, the working class and middle class families.
"Already we're seeing job losses in the public service. While one may try to qualify them as short or long term, the fact is, many people are now without the incomes they had before because of Government action."
She added, "Earning and preserving the confidence of working men and women, through job security, is critical for the confidence required to make tough decisions. The Government has a duty to explain how any tough decisions will ultimately benefit the population."
Saying social protection for the vulnerable is critical to economic stability, she said her Government had implemented programmes to provide a social safety net and training for the vulnerable.
Persad-Bissessar added, "Maintaining construction momentum in housing and infrastructure will ensure we avoid spin-off effects such as job losses, slowed consumer spending and a fall in confidence in the Government's ability to effectively manage the economy."
She assured her government had left a solid economic and financial platform.
"The Government must be careful to balance its desire to stamp its personal brand on the management of the economy (which they are entitled to do) with doing what is right and in the best interest of all the people," she said.
The PNM Cabinet is expected to meet today ahead of Imbert's delivery.
Persad-Bissessar will deliver her Budget reply on Friday. Budget debate continues in the Lower and Upper Houses of Parliament over the next two weeks, following which comes several days of scrutiny by Parliament's Finance Committee based on Opposition questioning. (GA)
MPs TAKE UP NEW POSITIONS
Members of the PNM Government and Opposition PP will today take up their working positions in Parliament.
Government's front bench begins with Leader of Government Business Camille Robinson-Regis, Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley, Attorney General Faris Al-Rawi, Finance Minister Colm Imbert and others.
Government's back row includes deputy Speaker Esmond Ford, National Security Minister Edmund Dillon and others, ending with Toco MP Glenda Jennings-Smith, officials added.
The Opposition bench comprises PP whip Dr Roodal Moonilal, Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar, MPs Dr Tim Gopeesingh, Prakash Ramadhar, Suruj Rambachan, Fazal Karim, Christine Hosein, Dr Bhoe Tewarie, David Lee, Vidya Guyadeen-Gopeesingh, Dr Fuad Khan, Rudy Indarsingh and Ramona Ramdial. PP's back bench comprises MPs Ganga Singh, Rodney Charles, Barry Padarath, Dr Lackram Bodoe and Rushton Paray. (GA)