WASHINGTON - The US economy is picking up. If only job growth would follow. A spate of data yesterday showed US factories grew last month at the fastest pace since June, construction spending increased for a third straight month, and both retail sales and auto sales rose in November. But the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is still too high to signal strong hiring. The reports offered a mixed picture for the economy one day before the government reports on job growth in November. Economists project that employers added a net 125,000 jobs. That's not enough to lower the unemployment rate, which is projected to stay at 9 per cent for the second straight month.
And manufacturers could face strains overseas in key export markets, especially if Europe's debt crisis worsens and leads the continent into another recession. For now, factories are growing. The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing managers, said yesterday that its manufacturing index rose to 52.7 in November, up from 50.8 in October. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. Factories have grown for 28 straight months. Bradley Holcomb, chair of the ISM's survey committee, said manufacturers "are cautiously more optimistic about the next few months based on lower raw materials pricing and favourable levels of new orders."
Still, companies have tempered their outlook with concerns about future economic growth, government regulation and the debt crisis in Europe, he added. New orders rose to a seven-month high and production increased, according to separate indexes in the report. Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics, said the gains suggest factory output will expand at an even faster pace next month. "The economy seems finally to be developing real momentum; growth is accelerating," he said in a note to clients.
But a measure of factory employment fell. The drop indicates manufacturers are still hiring, but at a slower pace than the previous month. "Manufacturers are trying to meet demand without significantly increasing their work force," said Ryan Wang, an economist at HSBC Securities. Worker productivity rose in the July-September quarter by the most in 18 months, while labor costs fell, the government said Wednesday. A more productive and less-costly work force can boost corporate profits. But unless companies see more demand, they're unlikely to step up hiring.
AP
