If you go back to 2005 and look at the long list of proposed new downstream projects, you will see that it is only the MHTL AUM project which has delivered on its promise, as many projects never started and a couple started and then stalled, most notably the Alutrint and World GTL projects. We do not think it's coincidental that the only successful downstream project to be delivered on time and on budget was achieved by one of our long-established players with a track record of success. We believe this to be an important lesson for the country, as it signals that in difficult times these are the companies both in the upstream and downstream sectors of the industry, which the country can truly rely upon to deliver.
However, despite the feeling of doom and gloom, we are seeing some positives in the energy sector. If you look at the weighted average of our production and prices of energy sector commodities, you see a good overall pattern of growth over the last two years; this is the energy commodity index that the Energy Chamber has worked with the Central Bank to develop. You can see that in December 2010 the index hit its highest levels since we begun this exercise at the beginning of 2009. This index gives a much better idea of the effect of price and production figures on the local energy sector's contribution to GDP; more so than oil prices, which tend to get the press coverage.
Continued next week