ENERGY REPORTER
T&T will have to look in the deep horizon on land if it is going to find new large reserves of crude oil, according to Anthony Ramlackhansingh, a former lecturer in geosciences at the University of the West Indies. In a paper titled, Frontiers for Development of the Hydrocarbon Industry in T&T, Ramlackhansingh argued that this country was at a crossroads and it was crucial that new reserves are found and that there be an increase in the production of hydrocarbons, particularly crude oil.He believes that, outside of the deep water, the only place to find significant amount of hydrocarbons is in the deep horizons on land and that requires the Government to attract the large multinationals. "This is a costly exercise that poses high technical and operational risks with uncertain rewards. However, it requires large volumes of hydrocarbons to become commercially viable.
"As such, it requires quality big players who have deep pockets, cost-effective safe drilling technology and technically-competent explorationists who have the ability to be creative and visualise the sub-surface in 3D and be willing to take the risk." Energy consultant and former director of resource management at the Ministry of Energy, Helena Innis-King, said while there is evidence to support the theory that there are large deposits of oil in the deep horizons, the failure of Exxon to find it in the 1990s has made it very difficult to attract the large players to drill on land. She said in addition, BP owns most of the acreage on the continental shelf and so it is not possible to bring in other players on the shelf to explore in the deep horizons. She said the only other options were in Trinmar offshore and Petrotrin on land. In a telephone interview on Tuesday, Innis-King said, "Petrotrin recently did a seismic survey and one of the areas they are looking at is the possibility of accumulations in the deep horizon. So, perhaps, they will prove the theory true." With oil production continuing to decline, Ramlackhansingh said there should be moves to immediately increase production out of Petrotrin's mature fields by infill drilling and enhanced recovery techniques. He argued that these should be done solely through Petrotrin's initiatives using high-quality 3D seismic.
"These initiatives would stem the decline and keep the country's indigenous crude production hovering around 85,000 to 90,000 bopd (barrels of oil per day) over the next six to 20 years, in spite of possible decline in the Angostura and TSP fields," he said. He is also advising low risk, shallow opportunities below 10,000 feet should be explored through outstep and exploration drilling for already proven producing reservoirs through Petrotrin and quality joint-venture partners initiatives. "This would result in limited commercial new finds, which would stem and reverse the decline. The gestation period for this initiative can be anywhere between three to ten years before announcements of finds and a further five years for realisation of the development plan to see first production. "This depends on whether the finds are onshore or offshore. This initiative, if effectively implemented, would give us a ramp-up in production rates of around 10,000 to 15,000 bopd in 15 years' time, which can extend the life of production by a further 20 years based on reservoir performance," Ramlackhansingh wrote.
He suggested that the deep water bid round would have been more successful if the blocks were larger and if there were only six blocks. But Innis-King who worked at the ministry at the time the blocks were divided said the reality is that the country does not have the additional acreage and had to make them smaller than Brazil or Angola. She pointed to the Gulf of Mexico where the blocks are much smaller, though the area is more prospective than T&T. Ramlackhansingh also wants the country to focus on looking for opportunities in the energy sector outside of T&T. He said our remaining high-risk complex geological play types are competing against less risky, lucrative overseas opportunities worldwide. He argued that this country could provide technical advice and consultancy services to countries that want to set up an energy sector, bid and win for gas projects through NGC and provide energy service from T&T, but, the revenues derived from these initiatives can in no way compare to the value derived from investments in successful viable overseas oil and gas opportunities.
"If we don't act now, the future of this business is in jeopardy. We cannot continue to stay within our boundaries and expect different results. If we stay within our boundaries, we may never see a quantum leap in oil and gas reserves and production, the engine that drives all other revolving energy-based industries, and in time, the economy. "We will continue to stutter around for a long while and see continued decline in oil and gas reserves and production," he said. "It is about time that revenues from low-risk NGC and NP be reinvested into renewed exploration locally and overseas, if we want to see this business move forward and grow. "For far too long, they have reaped and enjoyed the benefits of this business. They need to partner with Petrotrin in the upstream arm of the full value hydrocarbon chain where the greater share of the risk is taken. This would give us the impetus to venture into less risky, lucrative overseas exploration opportunities." These are some of the issues that will also be discussed at the annual conference of the Geological Society of T&T from the September 3 to 5, 2012.
