Our appetite for online video content is growing at a startling rate. It is expected that in just four years from now, video will make up 79 per cent of consumer Internet traffic. That's a statistic every business should pay attention to. That trend means trouble for any organisation whose current network infrastructure, or bandwidth capacity is already under pressure to deliver what the business needs.
Consumers are demanding ever more high quality and high definition content. More than six billion hours of video are watched each month on YouTube–that's almost an hour for every person on Earth. Eighty per cent of YouTube traffic comes from outside the US. This year, more than three billion people watched the 2014 World Cup online, and 715 million watched the finals alone.
As social media gains further momentum, consumers are expecting to be able to engage with all forms of content, particularly bandwidth-intensive video content. They are also expecting to be able to have that access on their mobile devices.
The share of total video plays by mobile and tablet platforms continues to take away playing time from other devices. Ooyala, as part of its Global Video Index for Q4, 2013 reported that the mobile + tablet share of video plays reached almost 18 per cent–an increase of a more than ten points over the 7.0 per cent reported a year earlier. The report predicts that mobile video "could make up to half of all online video consumption by 2016."
Ooyala, the SaaS video management and analytics company, releases the aggregated numbers developed from its client base that serves 200 million viewers globally.
In an interview, Jonathan Wilner, Ooyala's vice president, product, explained why he thought this stunning growth of mobile and tablet video viewing is happening now. "I think the critical reason is two-fold," he said. "It is an increase of premium content that is available.
And underneath the covers, it is a technological change that is happening with much better tablets and phones, much better wireless coverage that allows people to do streaming outside the home in particular."
To meet this demand, it's vital to have solid, reliable video delivery infrastructure. With all of the different variables involved in content acquisition, exchange and distribution, service providers, broadcasters and even corporate network administrators need scalable, high performance platforms flexible enough to manage the demands placed upon it by a rapidly evolving industry.
The modern technologies that support video content delivery all have two things in common: the need for a high-speed broadband and for high-performing networks. A recent report of the Cisco VNI global IP traffic forecast predicts that broadband speeds are expected to nearly triple by 2018 when global fixed broadband speeds will reach 42 Mbps, up from 16 Mbps in 2013.
The number of devices connected to IP networks will be nearly twice as high as the global population in 2018. There will be nearly three networked devices per capita by 2018, up from nearly two networked devices per capita in 2013. Accelerated in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 17 GB per capita by 2018, up from 7 GB per capita in 2013.
The figures should not be all that surprising. Video, of all sorts, is taking an increasingly central place in our work and personal lives. In offices, classrooms and conference rooms, streaming video has become an integral part of on-the-job learning, course delivery and remote collaboration. Video conferencing is helping teams work together smoothly and deepen relationships with business partners, and connect with customers.
Out of the office, entertainment services like Netflix, Tube and a host of other video streaming and rich-content delivery services compete bring movies, music videos, news and education content to users.
All of this contributes to the challenge currently facing CIOs and other IT leaders. Some Internet service providers and IT administrators respond by throttling access or by outright blocking of services. But this is an exercise in futility. Global IP traffic is set to surpass a zettabyte by the end of 2016 and keep right on growing.
For Internet services providers, the solution lies in infrastructure upgrades and optimisation of data traffic through strategies like content caching and local peering. For corporate network managers, their emphasis must be on creating the future-proof infrastructure today's enterprises and consumers need to continue growing and thriving.
Forecasting the visual network
Global IP traffic has increased more than fivefold in the past five years, and will increase threefold over the next five years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21 per cent from 2013to2018.
Busy-hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Busy-hour (or the busiest 60?minute period in a day) Internet traffic increased 32 per cent in 2013, compared with 25 per cent growth in average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 3.4 between 2013 and 2018, while average Internet traffic will increase 2.8-fold. Busy-hour Internet traffic will reach 1.0 petabits per second (Pbps) by 2018, the equivalent of 335 million people streaming a high-definition (HD) video continuously.
Content delivery networks will carry over half of Internet traffic by 2018. Fifty-five per cent of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks by 2018 globally, up from 36 per cent in 2013. Global IP traffic will reach 1.1 zettabytes per year or 91.3 exabytes per month in 2016.
Over half of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2018. In 2013, only 33 per cent of total IP-traffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2018 the non-PC share of total IP traffic will grow to 57 per cent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 10 per cent, while TVs, tablets, smartphones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 35 per cent, 74 per cent, 64 per cent, and 84 per cent, respectively.
Source: This forecast is part of the Cisco� Visual Networking Index (VNI), an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications.
Bevil Wooding is the an Internet strategist with US-based research firm Packet Clearing House and the founder and executive director of BrightPath Foundation, an technology education non-profit organisation. Reach him on Twitter @bevilwooding or on facebook.com/bevilwooding or contact via e-mail at technologymatters@brightpathfoundation.org.