While the Central Bank expects an almost two per cent contraction of the T&T economy for the first half of this year, data from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) suggests there might be marginal growth for the period of 0.2 per cent. The CSO's more optimistic projection is premised in the continued positive performance of the non-petroleum sector, offsetting recent declines in the petroleum sector.
The Review of the Economy 2015, one of the supporting publications for the 2015/2016 National Budget presented by Finance Minister Colm Imbert on Monday, shows that the non-petroleum sector has been posting average annual growth of 2.3 per cent since the 2008/2009 global financial crisis. The sector is expected to account for 64.7 per cent of real gross domestic product (GDP) this year, up from 63.4 per cent in 2014.
The report states: "The services sub-sector is expected to continue to be the main catalyst of economic activity and is projected to contribute 56,23 per cent to real GDP 2015, slightly up from its 54.9 contribution in 2014.
However, a 3.4 per cent contraction in the petroleum sector is expected due to lower output in exploration and production, refining, petrochemicals and asphalt productions. That sector's contribution to GDP is expected to decline to 34.9 per cent–down from 36.2 per cent last year.
According to the report, the government's overall fiscal operations are projected to realise an overall deficit of $7,013.7 million or 4.2 per cent of GDP.
Total revenue and grants is estimated at $54,803.6 million or 32.7 per cent of GDP of which tax revenue of $47,286.6 million continues to be the major component.