The Government recorded a fiscal surplus of $1.3 billion for the first eight months of the current 2012 fiscal year, according to the July Economic Bulletin, published by the Central Bank. According to the document, receipts by the Government in the period between October 1 and May 31 amounted to $30.37 billion, while the expenditure in the same period totalled $29.04 billion, resulting in a fiscal surplus of $1.33. The Central Bank said the surplus was due to "increased energy prices together with a broad-based improvement in non-energy tax collections." This resulted in total revenue in the October to May, 2012 period rising by 5 per cent compared with the same period in the 2011 fiscal year. "Crude oil prices averaged US$98.55 (West Texas Intermediate) during October 2011 to May 2012 compared with US$93.55 per barrel in the same period one year earlier and the budgeted price of US$75 per barrel," according to the Economic Bulletin. Total energy revenue in the eight-month period totalled $15.72 billion, marginally higher than the 15.6 billion in the same period in the 2011 fiscal year.
The report stated that non-energy revenues increased by 9.9 per cent to $14.62 billion, as a a result of the "ecomnomic pick up in the non-energy sector." The Central Bank noted that net VAT collections jumped by nearly 19 per cent to $4.21 billion in the 2012 period from $3.54 billion in the 2011 period "on account of lower VAT refund payments along with higher receipts from imports and domestic goods."
During the October 2011 to May 2012 period, the Government managed to control expenditure, which rose by only 2.8 per cent to reach $29.04 billion, "despite a marginal decline in capital spending."
While the Government recorded a surplus between October and May, there have been several developments since May which may impact on the final numbers for the 2012 fiscal year, which ends on
September 30:
• In June, Parliament approved a supplemetary appropriation of $1.5 billion;
• While energy prices were robust for the first eight months of the fiscal year, there has been a pullback since May with the New York price of oil hitting a 2012 low of US$77.69 in late June.
• But since then, according to an Associated Press report yesterday, oil has gained nearly 20 per cent with benchmark US crude closing yesterday US$0.80 higher to finish at US$92.20 per barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, which is used to price international varieties of crude, rose 61 cents to end at $109.55 per barrel in London. Yesterday's increase for oil followed a big spike on Friday when oil gained almost 5 per cent after the US government reported a surge in jobs growth last month, increasing optimism that the US economy was on the right track. The pickup in hiring last month was far greater than analysts were expecting and marked the biggest increase since February. Still, the number of US jobs added wasn't enough that investors are ruling out some sort of economic stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve. Finance Minister Larry Howai is expected to deliver the 2013 budget in Parliament next month.
