NEW YORK–Opec produces one-third of the world's oil and–in theory, at least–can affect global oil prices depending on how much oil it decides to sell. In reality, Opec member countries have different, often conflicting priorities and don't adhere to the cartel's targets for production.
When the cartel meets Thursday in Vienna, Iran and Venezuela are expected to call for a production cut in an effort to boost prices. Saudi Arabia, by far Opec's biggest producer and most influential member, along with some of its allies, appear willing to have prices drift lower for now. Trying to guess what Opec members are thinking is a high stakes parlour game in the oil industry. Here are some theories experts are raising:
�2 Saudi Arabia and other relatively well-off Opec countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, want to let prices fall to slow or stop production growth in the US and Canada, where drillers require higher prices to make money.
�2 Saudi Arabia and its allies want to force prices lower to increase pressure on fellow Opec member Iran during international negotiations over its nuclear programme. Saudi Arabia does not want Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
�2 Saudi Arabia wants to punish Russia for its support of Iran's nuclear programme. Russia is not an Opec member but is among the world's top three producers.
�2 Venezuela, Iran and Iraq–countries in difficult financial shape–want Opec to cut production quickly and sharply to force prices higher. They are unlikely, however, to offer to cut their own production.
�2 Saudi Arabia wants to keep oil flowing and prices low because it fears that the battle to defeat the Islamic State group will at some point disrupt oil supplies or infrastructure in Syria and possibly Iraq.
AP