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Monday, June 16, 2025

Exports from LAC grow amid global uncertainty

by

151 days ago
20250115
The report of the Inter-American Development Bank on the estimates of trade trends in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024.

The report of the Inter-American Development Bank on the estimates of trade trends in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024.

The In­ter Amer­i­can De­vel­op­ment Bank (IDB) Tues­day said that the val­ue of ex­ports from Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean (LAC) grew by an es­ti­mat­ed 4.1 per cent last year, re­cov­er­ing from a 1.6 per cent de­cline in 2023.

Ac­cord­ing to the lat­est IDB’s Trade Trends Es­ti­mates for Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean, draw­ing on da­ta for 2024, the re­port at­trib­ut­es the re­gion’s ex­port growth to high­er ship­ment vol­umes, as prices stag­nat­ed.

The IDB said ex­ports from the Caribbean ral­lied sig­nif­i­cant­ly, grow­ing by 18.3 per cent in 2024 af­ter a 14.9 per cent drop in 2023.

But while the trade out­look for Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean has im­proved sig­nif­i­cant­ly over the past year, with the re­gion’s ex­ports ex­it­ing a con­trac­tionary phase, the re­port cau­tions that there are still no signs of sus­tained growth.

“The risks to re­gion­al trade re­main bal­anced, but pro­jec­tions point to on­ly mod­est growth giv­en the pre­vail­ing un­cer­tain­ty in the glob­al econ­o­my,” said Pao­lo Gior­dano, prin­ci­pal econ­o­mist at the IDB’s Pro­duc­tiv­i­ty, Trade, and In­no­va­tion Sec­tor, who co­or­di­nat­ed the re­port.

“To en­sure for­eign trade con­tin­ues to make a mean­ing­ful con­tri­bu­tion to eco­nom­ic growth, the re­gion needs to pri­ori­tise re­forms and in­vest­ments that boost pro­duc­tiv­i­ty, fa­cil­i­tate trade, and at­tract in­vest­ment,” he added.

Ex­port per­for­mance var­ied sig­nif­i­cant­ly across the sub­re­gions of Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean.

The IDB said that this year’s trade growth was spear­head­ed by South Amer­i­ca, where ex­port vol­umes surged. The Caribbean’s per­for­mance al­so ral­lied, while in con­trast, ex­ports from Cen­tral Amer­i­ca re­mained stag­nant.

The prices of Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean’s main ex­port com­modi­ties de­clined steadi­ly in 2024, with the ex­cep­tion of cof­fee and cop­per.

Cof­fee prices surged by 57.7 per cent year-on-year, while those of cop­per grew by 9.4 per cent. In con­trast, there were sig­nif­i­cant year-on-year drops for soy­beans (-22.1 per cent), sug­ar (-13.7 per cent), iron (-9.2 per cent), and oil (-2.7 per cent).

The IDB said it ex­pects this down­ward trend to con­tin­ue in­to the com­ing quar­ters, as glob­al mar­kets re­main high­ly volatile.

South Amer­i­ca’s ex­ports grew by an es­ti­mat­ed four per cent last year, af­ter falling by 4.4 per cent in 2023. The dri­ving force be­hind this in­crease was ex­port vol­umes, which surged from 3.6 per cent growth in 2023 to 6.9 per cent in 2024, amid on­go­ing price de­clines.

The re­gion’s to­tal im­ports al­so re­bound­ed, show­ing mod­est growth (3.2 per cent) af­ter a sharp de­cline in 2023 (-6.8 per cent), the IDB added.

The es­ti­mates of ex­ports from Latin Amer­i­ca and the Caribbean for 2024 were cal­cu­lat­ed us­ing da­ta avail­able through Jan­u­ary 6, 2025.

In Trinidad and To­ba­go, ex­ports fell by an es­ti­mat­ed 13.1 per cent in 2024, less than the 37.8 per cent con­trac­tion of 2023.

Guyana’s ex­ports soared by 59.6 per cent in 2024, build­ing on the 15.8 per cent growth of 2023. Ship­ments in­creased to all ma­jor des­ti­na­tions ex­cept Asia (ex­cl Chi­na), al­though the Eu­ro­pean Union and the rest of LAC con­tributed most to the rise.

This pro­nounced growth was dri­ven en­tire­ly by a surge in oil pro­duc­tion, ac­cord­ing to the IDB re­port.

Ja­maica’s ex­ports con­tract­ed by an es­ti­mat­ed 9.3 per cent in 2024, re­vers­ing the 4.9 per cent growth record­ed in 2023, pri­mar­i­ly dri­ven by the de­cline in fu­el sales.

The da­ta used was for the fol­low­ing pe­ri­ods: Jan­u­ary-De­cem­ber for Brazil; Jan­u­ary-No­vem­ber for Ar­genti­na, Bo­livia, Chile, Colom­bia, Cos­ta Ri­ca, El Sal­vador, Mex­i­co, Nicaragua, Pana­ma, Paraguay, Pe­ru, Do­mini­can Re­pub­lic and Uruguay; Jan­u­ary-Oc­to­ber for Ecuador, Guatemala and Hon­duras; Jan­u­ary-Sep­tem­ber for Ba­hamas, Bar­ba­dos, Be­lize, Guyana and Suri­name.

T&T and Ja­maica re­port­ed da­ta for the pe­ri­od of Jan­u­ary to June 2024. (CMC)


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