Guyana says real economic growth is expected to remain strong with the oil and gas sector continuing to be the main driver of overall growth, supported by sustained dynamism in the broader non-oil economy.
Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh said that this year, overall growth is projected to be 16.2 per cent, and growth in the non-oil economy is projected to be 10.8 per cent.
Delivering the GUY$1.5 trillion (One Guyana dollar=US$0.004 cents) budget to Parliament on Monday night, Singh said that the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector is projected to grow by 7.6 percent this year, with expansion expected across all subsectors.
He said the sugar subsector is projected to expand by 67.9 per cent, with a target of 100,041 tonnes of sugar expected to be produced, while the rice sector is expected to grow by 1.8 per cent, with a production target of 827,500 tonnes of rice set for the year.
The other crops subsector is projected to grow by 9.8 per cent this year, with anticipated growth in production and cultivation across all major crop categories.
Singh told legislators that the livestock subsector is projected to expand by 2.6 per cent, also with higher production across all categories and that the fishing subsector is also projected to expand, with a growth target of two per cent for 2026, with higher marine and aquaculture production expected.
He said the forestry subsector is projected to grow further this year by 7.6 per cent, with a 2026 production target of 533,592 cubic metres of timber.
The Finance Minister said that the mining and quarrying sector is projected to grow by 17.6 per cent this year, with continued expansion in the oil and gas sector supported by growth in gold mining, bauxite mining, and other mining and quarrying.
“The oil and gas sector is projected to expand further by 17.9 per cent this year. The four producing FPSOs in the Stabroek Block are projected to produce almost 307 million barrels of crude oil – at a rate of approximately 840,000 bpd.”
Singh said the gold and bauxite mining subsectors are expected to expand by 5.4 per cent and 19.3 per cent, respectively,
“In 2026. In gold mining, declarations for this year are targeted at 510,450 ounces, with higher projected declarations from all categories of operators. Bauxite production is targeted at approximately 4.8 million tonnes for 2026, with higher output expected from both large producers in the industry”.
Singh told Parliament that manufacturing, construction are also expected to show growth and “this year, we expect to see continued growth in key service industries such as financial and insurance activities, wholesale and retail trade and repairs, transport and storage, professional, scientific and technical services, and administrative and support services.
“These industries are projected to grow by 11 per cent, eight per cent, 5.3 per cent, 23.2 per cent, and 6.9 per cent, respectively,” he added.
He said that this year the overall balance of payments is expected to record a surplus of US$151.3 million, mainly on account of a projected reduction in the capital account deficit.
Singh said that the current account is expected to record a surplus of US$1.7 billion this year, with a projected merchandise trade balance of US$8.8 billion.
“Total export earnings are expected to grow by 1.8 per cent to US$20.5 billion, with export earnings from crude oil projected to grow by 0.9 per cent to approximately US$18 billion reflecting projected price moderation.
“Non-oil exports are projected to increase by 8.6 per cent to US$2.5 billion, mainly on account of higher anticipated export earnings of gold and bauxite, with greater output and favourable prices. At the same time, import payments are anticipated to increase by 14.2 per cent to US$11.7 billion in 2026, with the arrival of the Errea Wittu FPSO expected in the second half of the year.”
Singh said that the capital account is forecasted to record a lower deficit of US$1.6 billion, underpinned by higher projected disbursements and FDI inflows in 2026.
Earlier in January, President Irfaan Ali said that Guyana is entering a decisive phase of industrial and manufacturing growth and is urging local production to expand to meet the rising demand of a rapidly growing economy.
Delivering the feature address at the commissioning of the Banks DIH’s new GUY$13.7 billion (One Guyana dollar=US$0.004 cents) malt production plant on the East Bank of Demerara on Sunday, President Ali said the facility, capable of producing 400,000 cases of beer per month, symbolises the confidence driving Guyana’s economic renewal.
He told the audience that as the economy expands, rising incomes and consumer spending will fuel even greater demand for food, beverages, and other goods, underscoring that the country now stands at a decisive crossroads.
“The question before us is simple but profound. Who will meet that demand? Will we rely increasingly on imports, or will we see expanded local production?” he asked.
High energy costs have historically constrained industrial expansion and reduced competitiveness, discouraging investments in manufacturing, but that is likely to change this year with the landmark Gas-to-Energy (GTE) project being developed in Wales, Region Three. President Ali said with lower energy costs local manufacturing would become more viable, allowing both new industries and existing companies to expand. That is why he emphasised that the period between now and later this year is critical.
“Companies must prepare. They must plan. They must position themselves for this new era. They must begin to produce more food, more beverages, more consumer goods, not only for local demand, but for export,“ President Ali said.
Using Banks DIH as an example, he said established Guyanese companies have a vital role to play in shaping the country’s manufacturing future.
Russian company returns
The Guyana government says it has given approval for the restart of bauxite operations on the Berbice River amid widespread speculation that RUSAL (Russian Aluminium), which shut down its operations six years ago amid an industrial dispute resulting in 132 employees being laid off, returning to the country.
While Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh did not disclose the name of the company during the presentation of the national budget on Monday night, he told legislators that he blame for the closure rests with the then coalition A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) government in 2020, and the loss of jobs.
Singh said that the Irfaan Ali government a “few days ago” agreed with the company and “in 2026 the operator will advance work to restore all critical systems so that production can safely and reliably resume”.
Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat later confirmed to the online publication, Demerara Waves Online News that it was in fact RUSAL who had packed up its machinery and other equipment in Aroaima, Upper Berbice after a strike — sparked off by the laying off of more than 100 workers because it could not get duty-free concession on fuel — turned ugly with the blockading of boats and the destruction of property.
The Guyana Bauxite and General Workers Union (GBG&WU) had preferred to see RUSAL leave Guyana rather than remain and abuse workers’ rights.
Closure of RUSAL had also triggered the pulling out of the German shipping company, Oldendorff Carriers Guyana Inc that was responsible for the transhipment of bauxite to stockpile vessels near the Atlantic Ocean for loading onto international cargo ships. (Stories by CMC)
