In just over two and a half weeks the people of Tobago will for the second time in one year head to the polls to elect a new House of Assembly to run the island’s business.
Many in the know suspect it is going to be a close race and if we are to judge from the January outcome, it is likely to go down to the wire as the Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP) challenges the ruling People’s National Movement.
It has been 21 years now since the PNM rested power from the National Alliance for Reconstruction with Orville London becoming the first PNM Chief Secretary after he defeated Hochoy Charles.
London’s victory was based in part on a man who had worked in the vineyard, had convinced his own party that it needed to change its constitution to give autonomy to a Tobago Council so that he could show Tobagonians he was his own man and that Tobago PNM was, in a sense, a home grown party and managed its own affairs. It was not beholden to Trinidad.
London did another thing that was politically brilliant, but disastrous to the economy, he created a voting block within the THA by employing what Moody’s estimates to be almost 60 per cent of those with jobs on the island working in the THA.
By doing so it meant individuals and families could rely on and recognise where their bread was coming from, it was a steady loaf and it meant they could even work a second job if the opportunity presented itself.
This impacted productivity in the THA, created a sense of dependence among Tobagonians and crowded out the private sector and its access to competitively priced labour. In other words it skewed the labour market on the sister isle.
The Moody’s 2021 assessment of Tobago’s economy is stunning, it shows that the island is completely dependent on Trinidad for its sustenance and its earnings is about 1 percent of its recurrent expenditure. It shows the low level of economic activity on the island and confirms what many have argued that per capita its population is the biggest beneficiary of taxpayers dollars.
I do not propose in this column to deal with the numerous and well documented allegations of corruption, waste and mismanagement that has occurred, including under the watch of protagonists in this election and therefore will zip past this issue. However the reality is whether Tracy Davidson-Celestine or Farley Augustine become Chief Secretary they will inherit a THA that Moody’s in September gave a negative rating outlook and long term rating of Ba1.
According to the Business Guardian reporting, Moody’s blamed its negative outlook on limited economic diversification, very low own-source revenue, and weaknesses in reporting of financial statements.
It also revealed that in 2020 the Tobago economy contracted by a whopping 14 percent. This is perhaps not unexpected as COVID-19 ravaged most of the world’s economy and it would have slammed the island’s tourism sector.
So whether its the PDP or the PNM, the challenge will be great. The voters will have to decide who would most likely improve the situation or if the issues are so structural it will take several election cycles for meaningful change.
The problem though is that Tobago as a separate island has to be treated differently because of its special circumstances, but generates little revenue of its own and is being promised all kinds of things by the major political parties. These promises are being made on the basis that they will be paid for from resources provided by companies and residents of Trinidad who do not benefit from similar measures.
Let’s take for example the promise of a $1,000 ex gratia payment to every employee of the THA by the PDP’s political leader Watson Duke.
In a time of significant financial challenge Mr Duke has made the argument that the payment is deserved by the THA employees. This is likely to cost tens of millions of dollars and the question has to be asked if the THA has the money to fund it, whether this is fair to other public officers working in Trinidad and if so as the head of the PSA will he fight for Trinidadian PSA members to get the same benefit.
On the other hand, the PNM is offering to pay 25 per cent of the cost of land to low and middle income applicants. This may be a laudable initiative as the price of land has long been placed out of the reach of many but in 2021 can the island and country T&T afford this?
What is even more disturbing is the lack of discussion on the political platform to date on how the political parties plan to forge a new and diversified Tobago economy.
The reality is that Tobago can and should play a vital role in the T&T economy, this is assuming that Tobagonians want to remain in the unitary state called T&T.
Tobago has significant potential to be an earner of foreign exchange and to be a net contributor to the national economy.
This dependence on transfers and subsidies and the indignity of having to come to Trinidad on an annual basis to plead for money can be avoided but it requires a political directorate and importantly a Tobago population that is prepared to take responsibility for their economic development.
The THA has to reduce its recurrent expenditure. It has to wean people from the jobs they hold in the Assembly. Employing 60 percent of your working population is not in the long term interest of Tobagonians and the resultant impact on the services sector and agriculture is telling.
It crowds out the private sector and makes the island increasingly uncompetitive.
Tobagonians must face the harsh reality that part of the failure of its tourism industry has as much to do with a lack of marketing and diversified products as it has to do with the poor service they provide to guests.
For too long we have tried to pretend away the service issues in Tobago but you will not get repeat visitors if the first experience is not good.
Much has been said on the campaign trail about the issue of sites and attractions and while it scores political points, whoever takes control of the THA must deal with it.
The agriculture sector must be linked to the tourism sector and the use of technology encouraged to both diversify the offerings and to increase capacity with limited land space.
Productivity has to be addressed and the slow operations of the THA services has to come to an end. The island is not using hard earned taxpayers dollars efficiently and like Trinidad we are paying a hefty price for it.
Tobago has tremendous economic challenges and potential and like Trinidad it cannot put off change any further.