Nature has her own rhythm: periods of calm followed by phases of upheavals. Man is no different, periods of peace and prosperity lead those characterised by destruction and carnage. The last half a century or so has witnessed unprecedented growth and economic development. During this period, nature has been relatively well behaved. This, on the face of growing evidence, seems to be changing however. History, various scientific fields of endeavour and, indeed, scriptures of more than one tradition attest to the catastrophic impact on societies and civilisations brought about by the violent side of man and nature.
The description of a great flood is also found in Hinduism. The Saraswati Valley civilisation of ancient western India is thought to have been mortally wounded by the catastrophic natural event that caused the Saraswati River to disappear. The city of Dwarika on the western coast of India, whose king was Lord Krishna, was submerged by the encroaching sea. This caused a mass migration eastwards. The recent trials and tribulations of the Japanese arising out of the turbulent action of nature in the northeast of the country have been extensively covered by the global media. The recent unprecedented scale of flooding in Australia, Pakistan and Thailand must be cause for reflective pause.
Unfortunately, flooding is not the only disaster we face. There are also earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes/typhoons, droughts and forest fires. And as if this is not enough, the persisting financial instability and economic recession add to the pain. The level of human misery, particularly in developing nations, has to be reduced. Disaster mitigation must attract the attention of leaders and planners as catastrophic events divert the already limited resources needed for growth and development. Are we entering a turbulent phase of nature where societies and nations will continue to be battered by natural disasters? The idea that it cannot get any worse is parented by despair and optimism. It is a demon child as there is no law, natural or otherwise, nor is there any empirical evidence to support that view. Things can get better or worse.
When one considers the magnitude and frequency of the earthquakes that struck Japan, all thinking people will conclude that the saying/belief "lightning does not strike the same place twice" is not grounded in objective reality. Stubborn recession and financial instability, caused in no small way by the insatiable greed of conscienceless capitalists, conspire to add to the real sense of insecurity felt by many citizens in both the developed and developing worlds. Greedy man and turbulent nature are currently in harmony; not a good situation. If this trend continues, then serious social upheavals are in the offing. Mankind has been down this road before and there is no basis to assume the end is near. We are merely being transported along the peaks and valleys of the cyclical forces of nature and political man. Birth, growth, decay and regeneration are phases of an ever unfolding natural cycle.
The basic scientific law of the conservation of mass and energy holds true for all systems, both animate and inanimate. We tend to only associate them with inanimate objects. But recall animate objects are also characterised by mass and energy with the extra feature of consciousness. So, just as a house can be built and maintained and then falls into a state of decay, so too do empires and societies. Decay is not a permanent state as it is generally followed by regeneration and revival. In the great civilisations of the East like India and China, great trading powerhouses decayed while the western ones of Europe and their progeny were birthed and grew into prominence.
Now the eastern powers are experiencing revival and growth after their economic and political decay while it would appear that western ones have their sunset firmly in view, even if it is still distant. It would appear that the world, natural and societal, is in a transitional phase, one that is characterised by natural and political turbulence. As the environment tries to find a new equilibrium point, the natural upheaval will continue, which will be deepened by the shifting of economic and political dominance away from the North. All this adds to a sense of uncertainty that will be experienced by all. Under such circumstances, there is a profound need for enlightened leadership. Only time will tell if that need will be met.
• Prakash Persad is the director of Swaha Inc