The "forest-fire" scenarios are terrifying: 1.5 million deaths by early next year. We need a bit of panic. But there are two sorts. There's constructive panic, doing difficult but sensible stuff at catch-up pace. And there's plain old panicky panic. If travel bans are the way to fight Ebola, the Caribbean leads the world. T&T, along with Jamaica, St Kitts-Nevis, St Vincent and St Lucia last week banned travel from African countries with an Ebola outbreak.
In our case, that means anyone who has been in Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria or Congo during the past six weeks–that includes returning T&T nationals– face a three-week quarantine. The World Health Organization says the incubation period for Ebola is from two to 21 days. Chikungunya is one reason the region is running scared. The first Caribbean case was in St Martin, last December. Since then, tens of thousands have caught it.
Once the mosquitoes have the virus, we're in trouble. Ebola is not chikungunya. It is not mosquito-borne. Ebola is transmitted by infected body fluids from someone who is seriously ill or dead. That's why we see those scary bodysuits. If Ebola does hit the Caribbean, it won't spread like chikungunya. Next, we have the rumours. Ebola in Brazil? No. A refugee from Guinea had a fever. He was tested. It wasn't Ebola. Ebola at Piarco? No; Malaria. Ship from Liberia? No; Bulgaria.
Liberians passing through Trinidad? The head of US Southern Command spoke to an embassy staffer in Central America who spoke to men on the Costa Rica border who said they were Liberians. The staffer said the men said they may have come through Trinidad. Clear? Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea are the best places to fight Ebola. A UN fund-raising effort remains massively undersubscribed. And cash needs to translate into practical help.
A 70-bed clinic costs a million dollars a month to run; it takes skills to establish, needs 200 trained staff. Sierra Leone has fewer than a thousand doctors and many have died fighting Ebola. Cuba has sent 165 health workers there, with 300 on the way to Liberia. China has medical staff on the front line. Britain has sent health workers, with troops for construction work. Australia offered small-change cash but will not send doctors.
Resources could usefully have been committed in March or April; realistically, there was no political support for big spending till home-country voters got frightened. Some people are showing courage. Not least Teresa Ramos, the nurse who caught Ebola from a patient in Madrid. She wants to treat Ebola patients again. And even more, the 22 million who live in the worst-affected countries show courage.
Their fear and sorrow and ongoing poverty must be terrible. But society has not collapsed. With all the heartache, most people in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea don't have Ebola; fewer than 0.05 per cent have so far been infected. And these are countries with desperately under-resourced health systems, which had no advance preparation time. Health workers, meanwhile, need to come and go. Normal life continues.
People need to work, they need food. These countries like any others need import and export trade. Banning travel and shipping is massively unhelpful. The other place to fight Ebola is in the labs. The race is on to develop a vaccine, to develop drug treatment. Quick-diagnosis kits would be handy, too. We've known Ebola for 38 years. It would have been good to start the race earlier.
We didn't. But there's a fair chance of progress. GlaxoSmithKline says they will have experimental vaccine for health workers by early next year, but they don't forecast full-scale production before 2016. Next problem. Check your primary- school geography. Africa is a big place. Kenya and South Africa are further from the Ebola hot spots than we are. Nobody in Nigeria has Ebola. An infected Liberian-American flew to Nigeria in July.
Twenty Nigerians were infected; eight died. It looked a potential nightmare. Nigeria controlled the outbreak. There has been no new case since September 8. Let's stop calling that country "Ebolastricken." Nobody in Cameroon has Ebola. Or Ghana. Or a lot of other countries. The rest of the continent needs to signal that life is normal. The chance of catching Ebola in the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association Conference hotel in Cameroon were close to zero.
Calling back T&T's delegates looked like a hurtful snub. Airport screening is probably a waste of time. Most infected travellers are at the pre-fever stage. Travellers who show a fever may have flu, chikungunya, whatever. The BBC quotes a senior medical consultant on Britain's screening effort: it's "a political gesture." Living Water has advised no asylum-seekers from West Africa in the past year. Undocumented migrants?
If they're settled here, they won't be within the 21-day incubation period for homecountry infection. For ten days in August, Liberia made an ill-advised attempt to cordon off the impoverished neighbourhood of West Point. That led to food shortages, conflict and chaos. The last thing we need is to repeat that experiment on a geo-scale.