I first went to Cuba in December 1991. That was two years after the fall of communism in eastern Europe and the end of subsidised Russian oil.It was the low-point of Cuba's "special period." Inside tourist hotels, all seemed fine. Outside everything was in short supply, including basic foods.Everyone "knew" that Fidel Castro would be gone by Easter 1992.
I went back five years later. I met a resident German photographer who didn't dare leave the country for even a day, in case the big story broke while his back was turned.A quarter-century on from the Berlin Wall, Fidel's 83-year-old brother Ra�l still runs Cuba. Step-by-step liberalisation and subsidised oil from Venezuela has helped the regime to survive. The shortages have eased, and there is a trickle of consumer imports for those with access to US dollars.
And there's still the big question: what's next? Peaceful transition to a socially aware democracy with positive features of Castro's Cuba retained? Or a swift slide to something like Putin's Russia dominated by a handful of bling-flashing billionaires and mired in corruption?So what changed last Wednesday? Everything, and nothing.
After 55 years of confrontation, President Obama's speech and Ra�l Castro's response signal a huge change of mood. The enormous US Interests section of the Swiss Embassy in Havana–already staffed by a small army of Americans–will be magically transformed into a US Embassy, doing much the same job, but under its own flag.
Limits on remittances from the US to family members in Cuba have been increased. There will be a slight ease-up on trade. American banks can open correspondent relations with Cuban counterparts, and visitors will soon swipe their credit and debit cards. Telecoms links will be improved.Travel will be easier for Americans with Cuban family ties, or another special reason to visit.
The two countries already work together without fanfare on issues like counter-narcotics. That co-operation will be clearer and more open.But on the big issues, no movement. There's no end, yet, to the trade embargo. That would require a vote from what is now a firmly Republican Congress.
There's still a travel ban for casual visits–so no mass tourism. When that does come, it will be at best a mixed blessing for Jamaica and the Bahamas, as hotel guests and cruise ships divert to Cuba's ports and beaches.
Cargo ships which have called at Cuban ports are still barred from US harbours. And end to this ban would be great for the Brazilians who have invested in a huge new transshipment port at Mariel, just west of Havana. It would not be good news for Kingston, or for Freeport in Grand Bahama.
The changes play well in Cuba–with government supporters, with dissidents, and with those who just want to get on with their lives. Ra�l Castro has made few obvious concessions. But the US initiative will provide a continuing nudge to open policies.Inside the regime, there have long been faction fights, not least between hardliners and reformers.
America, too, has its faction fights. With next year's budget safely passed and the mid-term elections out of the way, Barack Obama can afford risks. But the Republicans will not make life easy.He can upgrade the Havana post to Embassy status. But getting a new ambassador agreed by the Senate will give Republicans a chance to play theatre. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina has already threatened to block funding.
"We feel betrayed," said the fearsome Florida Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen on Wednesday. The major of Miami said he would fight any proposals for a Cuban consulate in the city.Florida Senator Marco Rubio, a likely Republican presidential contender, accused Obama of "coddling tyrants." Florida governor Jeb Bush, another hopeful, says the president should not be "negotiating with a repressive regime."
But the Miami Herald found plenty of less prominent Cubans in South Florida who want easier links with their homeland.The high-level diplomacy has been under way since mid-2013, eased along discreetly by the ever-helpful Canadians and an Argentinian pope.
So it was not prompted on the Cuban side by the six-month slide in oil prices. But that slide places Cuba's Venezuelan alliance under pressure. Despite his collapsing economy, Nicolas Maduro will keep subsidised oil flowing to Cuba, even if he has to diminish the stream to less crucial PetroCaribe beneficiaries such as Jamaica.But if Maduro and his allies lose power, the flow will stop. Big Trouble.
The next episode of this long-running soap plays in April in Panama, when the Organisation of American States hosts a Summit of the Americas. Panama has invited Cuba, which has not participated in the OAS since its suspension in 1962.
In 1969, what was then West Germany launched its eastern policy, or Ostpolitik–an opening to communist East Germany and the Soviet Union. That proved a long game; it took 20 years for the Wall to come down. Barack Obama's southern policy will play out faster, but the end-game may fall to his successor.