My true love sent to me...seven Caribbean general elections likely in 2015. Plus local government lagniappes in Belize and Jamaica, so that makes nine.
T&T: That's the one we know and love. It's due by September. From this distance, the race looks close; though a nine-month stream of unpaid Voices ads may swing some votes back to Kamla. If energy prices keep sliding, that would hit government spending–but probably not till after the polls, with the winner to pick up the tab.
Guyana: Donald Ramotar's minority government prorogued Parliament in November, sending MPs home after their summer break. That small manoeuvre blocked a threatened no-confidence motion. On paper, there's no election due until April 2017–but a 2015 poll is now all but certain.
No Parliament means no budget, so the Government's legal authority to write cheques lapses at the end of April. If elections are called at that point, the Government can keep spending for another three months. So that would mean an end-July poll. Naturally, this is Guyana: so anything could happen. Meantime, look for squabbles over election management and the voters' list.
Suriname: The date is fixed, May 25. Desi Bouterse's alliance swept in five years ago with 36 of the 51 seats, just after Kamla's triumph. Since then, two coalition parties have defected to the Opposition, which now looks a strong challenger. The Government can't even be sure of the 26-member quorum needed for the National Assembly to meet, so it will have trouble passing legislation in the pre-election months.
Desi Bouterse led a military dictatorship in Suriname in the 1980s, which led to a bloody civil war and left the economy in ruins. His son Dino is in a New York prison, due for sentencing on January 6 after pleading guilty in August to drug, gun and possible terrorism charges. Most voters seem happy to shrug off these little problems.
Bouterse can lean on economic success. Like Guyana, Suriname has done well from high gold prices. Gold has plunged by a third since September 2012, but a US company Newmont this month broke ground on a big new mine, to be developed in partnership with the Government. Also this month, the state-owned oil company Staatsolie completed an ambitious refinery expansion. Recent reforms include new health benefits and a minimum wage.
If neither side wins a two-thirds majority, the new president must be chosen months later by the United People's Assembly–an unwieldy gathering of more than 900 members of Parliament and local government representatives. So both sides are gearing up also for the local elections, to be held on the same day as the nationals.
St Kitts-Nevis: Elections must be held by May, but could be earlier. Denzil Douglas has been prime minister for almost 20 years. That makes him the longest-serving head of government in the Americas. He lost his majority in Parliament two years ago, when two supporters crossed the floor–but with a little help from the Speaker, he has blocked debate on no-confidence motion which would have forced an earlier election. He now faces an alliance of three opposition parties, one of which holds a majority in the Nevis Island Assembly.
St Vincent
(OK...and the Grenadines): December 2015 makes five years since the last poll, but Ralph Gonsalves does not have to call an election until April 2016. He has been prime minister since March 2001–so that makes him second most long-lasting in the Americas, after Denzil.
Last time, Comrade Ralph squeaked back with less that 52 per cent of the vote, thanks in part to a catchy campaign song by Skinny Fabulous. This time, he is banking on the international airport at Argyle, due to be completed in 2015. For the first time, St Vincent will have direct flights to North America and Europe. Oppositionists, however, decry construction standards and the cost.
British Virgin Islands and Anguilla: These two UK Overseas Territories also have elections. Relations with Britain and the London-appointed governor are always an issue; but nobody seems ready for independence.
Jamaica: Local government elections are in March. Portia Simpson-Miller's government won 12 of the 13 parishes last time round, in 2012. That will be a hard act to follow–and Portia should by rights be in deep electoral doo-doo, almost two years into a stringent IMF package.
But in a December 1 by-election, her party easily held its rural Westmoreland stronghold, slightly increasing the share of the vote it won in general elections three years earlier. Another strong showing in the parishes would encourage her to stick with the IMF programme–and leave Opposition Leader Andrew Holness deeply worried.
Belize: There's a by-election on January 5, and local government polls in March. That makes a crucial mid-term test for Prime Minister Dean Barrow, with a general election due by mid-2017.The big picture: Creative vision? Strategic thinking? That's the hard part. Take your pick for the New Year.