Ryan Hadeed
One of the hallmarks for the great powers of western civilisation was their ability to maintain long periods of unrivalled stature and prosperity. These accomplishments were given the appropriate moniker of 'pax', the Latin word for 'peace'. The earliest was the Pax Romana, the two centuries (27 BC–180 AD) of economic and military supremacy experienced by the Roman Empire. Another was the Pax Britannica, the hundred years (1815–1914) during which the British Empire strode the world like a colossus.
In keeping with the trend, contemporary academics and political pundits have referred to the decades following the end of the Second World War as the Pax Americana, which saw the rise of the United States of America to a dominant position on the world's stage. This role was further solidified with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the ending of the Cold War. But threats even more dangerous than their former adversary have risen to fill the void. And now present challenges that the world's sole superpower may be either unwilling or unable to deal with effectively.
It's been just over a week since the world awoke to the news that Fidel Castro, the indomitable symbol of the Cuban Communist Revolution, had died. Condolences from leaders in the international community have been notably varied; some offering excessive praise for his legacy while others were more cautious with their words. Time will tell if he will be remembered as a courageous liberator or a brutal tyrant. Or both. If nothing else, Castro was a perennial reminder to (11) successive American administrations that his existence represented their failure to break the will of the small island nation. But his death comes at a pivotal moment when the world stands at a crossroad–seemingly ignorant to the lessons of the past and nervous for what the future may hold.
This year will be remembered for major events that had unexpected outcomes: the election of a political outsider as leader of the world's most powerful country; the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union; the aggressive and provocative expansion of Russian and Chinese interests; and the rise and spread of radical Islam. While these situations don't necessarily present a cataclysmic picture, let's take a moment and look at it from a historical perspective. When the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was established in 1949, its first secretary general, Lord Hastings Ismay, stated that the goal of the alliance was, "To keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down." Fast forward to 70 years later and the scenario is almost the complete opposite–the Russians are returning to their hegemonic ambitions, President-elect Trump has vowed to re-evaluate America's role in the world, and the Germans are the ones struggling to keep the rest of Europe together. So how did it come to this? Perhaps the very same post-Cold War peace is partially to blame for the recent chaos.
In the absence of a rival to act as a counterbalance, there has been little to stop the United States from advancing its own agenda. But exploiting this advantage has become a proverbial double-edged sword because their foreign policy is not only self-servicing but often turns out to be dangerously shortsighted. The penultimate example of this was the 'war on terror', a heavy-handed response to the September 11 attacks that would have far-reaching repercussions. The invasion of Iraq set a terrible precedent in circumventing international law and the collect authority of the United Nations. Unfortunately, the plans for a pro-western Arab democracy never fully materialised and the resulting power vacuum destabilised the Middle East, predicating the Syrian Civil War and the rise of the Islamic State. The resulting flood of refugees into the European heartland has intensified pre-existing feelings of xenophobia, paving the way for the current wave of nationalism that is sweeping the continent.
Though the US still boasts the world's largest military and economy, it is no longer viewed as the moral authority, neither in domestic nor international affairs. If the reputation as 'leader of the free world' continues to wane, more and more countries will regard it as a bully instead of a friend. This is what makes the question of Cuba an interesting one. Between the restoration of diplomatic ties with Washington and the traditional relationship with Moscow, Havana could very well end up with a balance that involves both progressive economic policy and their political status quo. If they are successful, it could encourage other countries to follow suit and foster closer ties with emerging powers, creating a world where America is no longer the geopolitical centre.
The Book of Ecclesiastes (chapter 9 verse 11) teaches that, "The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong," for everything and everyone is subject to time and chance. This applies to countries, leaders, and ordinary citizens alike; they all must eventually answer to the spectre of destiny. So just as the glories of the Roman and British empires now belong to the annals of history, the end of the Pax Americana may soon come to pass as well.