The first thing that can be established inside the numbers of the local government elections is that the turnout was 34.3 per cent, which is the lowest since 1983. A deeper examination of the results shows that with the exception of the Sangre Grande corporation, the PNM suffered a decline from its 2013 numbers of seven per cent in Arima; 21 per cent in Diego Martin; 1.1 per cent in Point Fortin; 21.3 pert cent in Port-of-Spain; 20.6 per cent in San Fernando; 21.5 per cent in San Juan/Laventille; and 13.3 per cent in Tunapuna/Piarco.
On the other hand, the UNC saw increases over what it earned in 2013 of 55.6 per cent in Chaguanas; 17.8 per cent in Couva/Tabaquite/Talparo; 17.1 per cent in Mayaro/Rio Claro; 4.7 per cent in Penal/Debe; 21.6 per cent in Princes Town; and 13 per cent in Siparia.
In the Sangre Grande corporation, the PNM saw an increase of 5.8 per cent over its 2013 performance, and the UNC saw a 33.5 per cent increase over its 2013 performance. As a consequence of the increased voter support for the UNC, the Sangre Grande corporation ended in a tied 4-4 outcome among the councillors and that tie was extended to a 2-2 split among the aldermen when the proportional representation calculations were made.
The UNC regained much of its support from the collapse of the ILP voter base of 2013 when UNC votes were severely split at that time. This was seen in Chaguanas where the ILP contested this year and in the other corporations where the ILP did not contest, and the statistics show that many of the voters went back to the UNC in greater numbers than they did for the PNM.
The reason for identifying the performance of the PNM in those corporations controlled by the UNC is to highlight the fact that the party increased its share of the vote in those corporations, but by smaller amounts than the UNC.
The PNM increased its share by nine per cent in Chaguanas, 5.8 per cent in Couva/Tabaquite/Talparo, 9.3 per cent in Mayaro/Rio Claro, 24.1 per cent in Penal/Debe (in 2013 the PNM contested all but one of the seats in this corporation), 5.5 per cent in Princes Town, and 1.6 per cent in Siparia.
The latter case is quite interesting because in 2013 the PNM won the popular vote in Siparia, but did not win a majority of seats because of the first-past-the-post system. This time around, the UNC won both the popular vote and the majority of the seats.
The UNC did not contest all of the corporations in 2013, so its partners the COP and NJAC contested some of the corporations. In Arima, the UNC performance was down by 4.3 per cent in relation to the COP of 2013; in Diego Martin, the UNC was down by 19.5 per cent in relation to the COP of 2013; in Point Fortin, the UNC was up by 31.6 per cent over the NJAC performance of 2013; in Port-of-Spain, the UNC was down by 65.4 per cent in relation to the COP of 2013 (the UNC did not contest two seats on the Port-of-Spain corporation in 2016); in San Juan/Laventille, the UNC was up by 5.9 per cent of its performance in 2013; and, in Tunapuna/Piarco, the UNC was up by 27.1 per cent over the COP performance of 2013.
What all of these figures show is a re-emergence of a clear two-party system as none of the other parties made any significant showing. The collapse of the ILP provided the biggest boost to the fortunes of the UNC as many of their voters returned home to them, while the PNM also regained some of its former ILP voters which was a smaller number than the UNC.
The numbers also suggest that the UNC has a major task on its hands to make inroads into the north western part of Trinidad (Diego Martin, Port-of-Spain, and San Juan/Laventille) with the collapse of the COP. That decline started in 2011 when Winston Dookeran announced that he would not be seeking re-election as political leader of the COP. By the time the 2013 local government elections came around, the party had become a shadow of its former self based on those election results. By the time of the 2015 general election, the COP was not able to pull its weight in the People's Partnership as it had done in 2010. After the general election, the then leader Prakash Ramadhar announced that there was no longer any partnership.
That created a situation whereby the UNC was the only former partner standing who could contest all of the seats across Trinidad. In many areas, the COP had previously had the benefit of UNC voters supporting it because of the tactical avoidance strategy of the partnership. Additionally, many former PNM voters who supported the COP may have returned to the PNM for the 2015 general election and simply stepped aside for this local government elections.
The challenges facing the two major parties are quite different. The PNM has to figure out why so many of their supporters in the corporations that they control stayed at home and what else must they do to expand their support. The UNC has regained its base and must now figure out how it can expand into places where it once had a coalition partner in the COP.