The People's Partnership Government is currently going through a difficult period as it attempts to quell an all-out war between two powerful personalities who are currently serving the Government.Works and Transport Minister, Jack Warner, and Chairman of the Board of Caribbean Airlines, George Nicholas III, have been engaged in a vicious swordfight ever since the dismissal of Captain Ian Brunton as Chief Executive Officer of the airline.
The fight has gotten so bad that the Government has had to call in an aviation expert to determine whether the Cabinet made a good decision last September to purchase nine new ATR turbo-prop aircraft for Caribbean Airlines in the absence of a Board of Directors.
The Attorney General, Anand Ramlogan, had to ask both persons to withdraw the heated public exchanges between them pending the recommendation of John Dunne, an aviation expert, to pass judgment on the safety of ATR aircraft for Caribbean Airlines.This has naturally produced a rejoinder from ATR in France to say that their aircraft are safe.
Naturally, the Government has to be very careful here as it is engaging in a public assessment of ATR, a major French aircraft manufacturer, to determine whether they made a good decision back in September. This being done because of a belated preference for Bombardier aircraft by the recently-appointed Board of Caribbean Airlines.
Excluding the technical virtues of any assessment, a negative outcome for ATR could lead to an open door for Bombardier as the replacement which could have devastating political, legal and financial consequences for the Government. Perhaps, the sticking point is not so much the payment of the commitment fee for the job as much as the international reputation of ATR.
One has to speculate that this might have been the only way that the Prime Minister could have dealt with a political situation that required an external referee as opposed to her making a choice between the Minister or the Board. By delaying the outcome and seeking to have a foreign expert pronounce upon the second guessing of the Cabinet, will the Prime Minister succeed in controlling her Minister of Works or telling the CAL Board to accept the decision of the Cabinet? Of course, in the background will be the French Government who will be monitoring all of this very closely. A major aircraft deal for a major French aircraft manufacturer is now on the line.
On the other side, is a potential beneficiary in the form of Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier. Naturally, the Canadian Government will be watching this very closely from the point of view of commercial benefit for a Canadian aircraft manufacturer. Needless to say, all of this will require very close diplomatic monitoring as the stakes are very high for these aircraft manufacturers. For ATR, the wording of the report by John Dunne will be closely examined and the resultant political decision that will follow will have both domestic and international implications.
Foreign governments always monitor the commercial interests of their manufacturing sectors overseas.The reality is that the Government cannot turn this into an issue of the former Board recommending ATR and the current Board now recommending Bombardier. If there was a question mark about the judgment of the former Board, why did Cabinet proceed to make a commitment to ATR in the absence of a new Board? Political choices cannot undo objective reality. On what basis did the Cabinet come to the conclusion that it could not rely on its own judgment after it had authorised payment of a commitment fee to ATR to seal the deal?
The symbolism of Minister Jack Warner saying that he is prepared to go and "plant peas in Tobago" cannot be lost on the internal political actors. The message from that is that he is prepared to become a backbencher by giving up his ministerial portfolio. That is not a place where the Government would want Jack Warner to be.
If a fracture takes place within the UNC over this matter, there can be no doubt that the hand of the COP will be strengthened within the Government. There have been recent tensions between the two parties in the Tunapuna constituency which is indicative of the fact that they are more comfortable retaining their separate identities.
The PNM is looking on at all of this and decided to take sides in the Jack Warner/George Nicholas III bout. The PNM is backing Warner on what they call principled grounds related to good governance between line Ministers and their Boards. However, it cannot be lost on anyone, that their backing is designed to open the wound wider.
Neither Jack Warner nor George Nicholas III appear ready to back down from their respective positions anytime soon. The UNC is in fracture guard mode to prevent a schism over this and the Cabinet is relying on a foreign aviation expert to help them solve a domestic political problem.