North Korea attacked a South Korean island off the West Sea on November 23, firing artillery shells, killing two marines and two civilians and causing the devastation of the entire island. North Korea claimed that it responded to provocation by South Korea. Now we are seeing the highest tension on the Korean peninsular since the Korean War of 1950-53. I have been asked which side is responsible for what took place and what will be the outcome. Replying to the question, I'd just like to say: "North Korea is playing with the development of its nuclear weapons programme, resulting in economic collapse and therefore it cannot feed its people. "In the past decade South Korea provided North Korea with huge economic aid of around US$4 billion for peaceful coexistence and reconciliation between the South and North."
North Korea is facing a critical situation politically and economically after its failed attempt to devalue its currency to cope with economic difficulties last year, due to much protest action by the public. The North Korean people no longer believe in their government and leadership. After the leader Kim Jong- il suffered strokes recently, the matter of succession in the North has become a hot issue for their family dynasty. The ailing leader wishes to turn over power to Kim Jong-un, who is just 26 years old and who was recently made a four-star general despite having no military experience. Entering the new millennium, a number of people have been crossing the borders with China and Russia to flee North Korea fearing for their lives, and some of them defected to South Korea. As of today the number of defectors to South Korea has topped 20,000. Hundreds of thousands of people have fled to China.
It means that the people have lost trust in and allegiance to Mr Kim. As a last resort, he is looking to the military. Now Mr Kim and his son are playing a game of survival and are seeking support from the military. It is a deliberate ploy aimed at strengthening Kim Jong-un's power by creating tensions at home and with South Korea, by developing nuclear weapons, and by embarking on military provocation, such as the sinking of a South Korean warship early this year and the artillery attack on the island. The reason for the military provocation by North Korean with the attack on the island remains unclear, but we can figure out some factors behind it. They are meant to consolidate power for heir apparent Kim Jong-un. The regime of North Korea has been trying to strengthen Kim Jong-un's grip on power, especially with the military manoeuvres.
The North's uranium enrichment programme and the provocations are all part of the efforts to enhance the image of new leader Kim Jong-un in line with its "military-first doctrine." They also are in pursuit of a peace treaty with the United States. Literally both South and North Korea are still at war, without a peace pact in place after the war. North Korea has been seeking direct talks with the US as a main member of the Armistice Agreement concluded shortly after the 1950-53 war. However, its demand was denied, and six-party talks among both Koreas, the US, China, Japan and Russia have also been at a stalemate, which has irritated North Korea, which is under difficulties politically and economically due to sanctions by the UN. North Korea has always gotten what it wants through brinkmanship in the past. It is once again trying those tactics. There are also suspicions that North Korea is trying to interfere in South Korean politics.
By creating a crisis there, North Korea is trying to foment disappointment in South Korea with the Lee Myung-bak administration's North Korea policies. But having found that bullying the South has become more difficult, Pyongyang could be trying to ratchet up tensions and stir up public sentiment against the Government's hardline policy toward North Korea. However, North Korea has overacted. Contrary to its expectation of anxiety and concern among the South Korean people, different responses have been happening in South Korea, unlike with the sinking of the South Korean vessel in March. The artillery attack on the South Korea island has created much sentiment against North Korea.
The attack did not cause discord among the people, but instead resulted in a united demand to deal firmly with the North, and furthermore has enhanced coordinated efforts against North Korea between South Korea and the US. We need to face up to the reality of what is happening in North Korea, and differentiate between the regime's leadership and their people. When confronting North Korea recently, at least this time, obviously South Korea lost much more to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and his son Kim Jong-un and their military elite. However, North Korea should realise that this is not the end of the game, but the start. In the end, who will win the game between South Korea, with full support at home and abroad, and North Korea, isolated at home and abroad? Time will tell.
Yong kyu Kwon
Ambassador, South Korea