In the document of Ministry of Planning and the Economy, entitled "Medium Term Policy Framework 2011- 2014; Innovation for Lasting Prosperity," its authors recognise that the current economy cannot support sustainability in the future; it cannot be a vehicle for diversifying the economy. Yet for the period 2011-2014 it is hoped that this same economy, constrained by its structure, low levels of productivity and competitiveness will be able to increase its exports 100 per cent by 2014 and GDP by 2 per cent by 2012. An economy is a complex adaptive system made up of a set of economic elements (companies, institutions and human resources) interconnected among each other to share skills, information and knowledge in the production of goods and services.
We have two interconnected economic sub-sectors; the off- shore driven by foreign investment, knowledge and innovation; and the on-shore sector predominantly made up of merchants who buy, mark-up and sell, mainly in satisfying the demands of the local population. Prof Ricardo Hausmann in analysing the economy of T&T came to the conclusion that our on-shore economy was operating in such a sparse product space that it would find it virtually impossible to develop/diversify itself without a direct intervention by the Government. Nothing concrete is proposed in the medium term policy framework that addresses this transformation of the on-shore economy so that it can move into a denser part of the global product space. This Framework document is anchored on the seven interconnected pillars of the PP manifesto for sustainable development among which is the information and communication technologies (ICT).
It is worth noting that in our case ICT can play two roles; provide the high speed communication network that government, business and consumers will need to participate in the local and global societies, and as enabling technologies that can support the few technological choices upon which we can really diversify our export economy; eg Israel uses ICT to support its imbedded micro computer/Instrumentation/control industry. Surely we have to try to improve the productivity and competitiveness of our present convergent economic elements, but we have to recognise that any improvement is bounded by the paucity of the existing production skills and the architecture of the on-shore economy.
Hence, we have to begin now, late as it is, to put in place the economic elements and their interconnections that will create the new economy that can compete globally. There are two concerns that impinge on this transformation. The first is that the world is not in such a recession that when it re-emerges life will be as it used to be. Globally, we have used up all of our easy (cheap) to get at commodities of which oil is the most important; given that economic growth for at least the last century depended on cheap energy. We have abused the environment and are in the midst of climate change, and some of us are beginning to challenge the major economic philosophies that govern world trade and finance.
The second is that we are but 1.3million people and can only hope to develop global competitive economic elements in a few specialised areas. Hence, innovation, which drives economic success today cannot be left only to serendipity; the lone individual getting an idea to take to market even with the help of government. Therefore, in parallel with anything that is planned in the Framework document there has to be an intense search by our people, with the diaspora, for a few emerging technologies and game changing constructs (that will have a great impact in the global economic future) around which we can build our new economic elements and their local and international interconnections.
Senator Professor Ramkissoon in the last Budget debate stated that economic diversification depends on research and development in certain technologies and he recommended a few of his choice. This process of identifying the technologies and constructs is called Foresighting and it is incumbent on this Government to restart the process immediately as part of the National Innovation System, the Innovation Diamond, which was approved by its Cabinet and again in the 2010-2011 Budget debate.
Mary K King
Via e-mail
