We have been producing oil commercially in Trinidad for over 100 years, and prior experience from discovering oil in small quantities goes back even further for 155 years. Oil and gas have become the backbone of our economy. In fact, the grip oil and gas have on our economy is so strong that efforts to diversify have been futile due to the influx of hydrocarbon revenues and the terrible effects on productivity and expectations of the population. Yet even with this history and today's instant online knowledge there is still widespread ignorance of what the oil and gas industry is all about and amazing statements come out of the Government, which give rise to concerns about the credentials of those who may be steering our ship. The wild claims about Bayfield Energy's recent "discovery" and the fact that the Prime Minister felt this may be related to our financial ability to repair roads, plus the appalling quality of press reporting (such as the alleged quote in the Business Express that Bayfield hopes to produce "18 million bpd every year ...") are just a small examples.
Should the residents of Moruga believe that if Bayfield's production is slower in coming than initially planned their roads won't be fixed? Or if there is significant success in oil exploration maybe they will get a four-lane highway. Then came an announcement of a Petrotrin discovery of "48 million barrels," which actually occurred last year but for cheap political use was suddenly made public with the implication that this was done by the Government. It would be better to stay silent than reveal such naivety, which I would like to think fools no one. Perhaps some basic elements of the petroleum industry should be taught in our schools. The problem gets rather more serious when we learn of the drastically falling oil production rates and shortage of gas at Point Lisas throughout 2011, and continuing. Surely these did not "just happen" and must have been foreseen by the Ministry of Energy, even entering into the calculations for the national budget. We have been repeatedly told that we have no shortage of gas reserves, but mysteriously the fields have been unable to produce enough to satisfy demand. And the minister claims to be forging ahead with a very unlikely-sounding contract with SABIC which will require an additional 250 mmscfd (million standard cubic feet per day) of gas production, approved gas export of 50 mmscfd to Barbados, and has several other projects, all requiring more gas production in approval or already under construction.Meanwhile the Ryder Scott Report indicated that we had proven reserves for nine years of gas production left last year. This is nine years at last year's production rate, not the increased rates that Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine seems intent on approving. Also, this does not account for decline when the production rate cannot be maintained from the reservoirs, so the shortage shows up long before they are completely depleted.
Much adverse comments have arisen about Ryder Scott and there is a move to retender the audit (although the audit tender is actually an annual activity), and people, principally explorationalists, like to believe that other categories of reserves such as prob- able, possible, and exploration potential are marketable. However, the facts are that only proven reserves are marketable and until somebody comes up with an alternative, the Ryder Scott audited reserves are the official reserves of the country. How then can the minister approve projects that will require reserves we do not have, or will drastically shorten the remaining producing life of those reserves we do have, without some clear explanation to the country? The UNC may be desperate to show some grand project, but without some explanation this appears to be a far more serious blunder than talking political nonsense about small discoveries. Let us please stop pipe dreaming about all sorts of enormous oil and gas finds coming onto production in unheard-of project schedules, and plan to work with what we know we have. If any additional reserves are proven these should be considered along with expected production dates, expected declines in existing production, expected downtime for maintenance and some allowance for mishaps, before it is determined whether any actual increase in production rate is possible. Only then can additional gas marketing projects be considered. The terms for new blocks for exploration must include some market incentives, but also provision for planned and regulated production so any new finds are not blown up in a desperate attempt to maintain today's impossible rates.
Reg Potter
Glencoe