If Mr Warner is successful in the Chaguanas West by-election, then we may extrapolate the trend and fast-forward to the next general election. This may yield a result where the 41 seats are won as follows: UNC 10, PNM 15 and ILP 16.There may be a migration of support from the COP, resulting in them losing all the seats which they hold at present, to the ILP. The PNM is likely to hold on to their 12 seats, plus taking the two Tobago seats from the TOP, and Pointe-a-Pierre from the UNC.
The ILP may gain most of the disenchanted UNC��, PNM and COP supporters and this could lead to them winning the non-PNM seats on the East-West corridor along with San Fernando West and Ortoire-Mayaro. The UNC may then retain only the seats in Caroni, Couva, Oropouche, Princes Town, Fyzabad and Siparia.
Rehan Abdool
Gulf View, San Fernando