A NACTA opinion poll being conducted into the ongoing general elections in India that began on April 7 and that will conclude on May 12 shows the ruling Congress party heading for a routing in the worst showing in its political history. Five phases have been completed in voting with four more to go. Although exit polls are not permitted until the completion of all nine phases of voting, all indications are that the opposition BJP will form the government. There is an anti-incumbency vote everywhere. Counting of votes will be held on May 16.The famed Gandhi family associated with the Congress, led by its scion Rahul, is not having the pull it had in previous elections. There is a wave for the opposition BJP whose Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi attracts hundreds of thousands at every stop. Not even the beautiful Priyanka Gandhi Vadra or her mother, the Italian-born Sonia, is able to charm voters to stop a Modi wave. People are fed-up of broken Congress promises.
Everywhere I polled people, it is an anti-Congress mood. People want change after what they describe as ten years of failed policies and massive corruption. Even Muslim voters, who have had serious issues with Modi and the BJP, have joined the bandwagon. The father of Bollywood icon, Salman Khan, urged Muslims to give Modi a chance and not other parties who continue to fool them. Other prominent Muslim clerics have also come out in support of Modi saying they are tired of being electoral slaves for one party. Prominent Muslims, who in the past supported Congress and other parties, have turned their backs on Congress in spite of appeals to Bollywood Muslims stars to give Congress a lift.Prominent cricketer Mohamed Kaif is contesting for the Congress as is former captain Mohammed Azharudeen and other prominent Muslims in Muslim strongholds; all are facing stiff contests and could lose as Muslims are crossing over to the BJP. All four Gandhis who are contesting seats–two for BJP and two for Congress–all in the huge state of Uttar Pradesh where most Indo-Trinis trace their roots, will win.
Opinion polls in UP show BJP winning half the 80 seats–and this will make it the strongest contender to form a government if its fails to get a majority of 272 (out of 545) seats. Modi, though he is from Gujarat, is also contesting in UP in the holy city of Varanasi and will prevail based on a small sample of people I interacted with. Modi is going up against two very popular candidates, including the leader (Arvind Kejriwal) of the anti-corruption party, AAP, but people want to give Modi a chance. Modi's opponents are campaigning on religious appeal urging Muslims not to vote for Modi. But it is not working. Everywhere and among all religious groups, there is strong confidence that Modi will reduce corruption and enhance development bettering the lives of all as opposed to only a small group heretofore under the Congress.In Delhi, polls had BJP ahead in three seats but everywhere I travelled almost everyone said they will vote Modi. Similarly, in Mumbai, polls showed Congress retaining most of the seats. But everywhere I went, people say they are voting Modi though his BJP is not even in the race in Mumbai proper.
Modi's alliance partner Shiva Sena is contesting against Congress and although he had not planned to campaign in Mumbai, Modi has now decided to make a visit to the huge city to help his partner. People are voting Modi (his alliance). In other mega cities (Chennai, Kolkota, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune, etc, it is also an anti-Congress feeling as a Modi-magic is expanding countrywide reducing the chances of a surprised Congress victory.
Vishnu Bisram,
NACTA