The equation was straightforward enough. The Rajasthan Royals had posted a score of 189. If the Mumbai Indians scored 190 or more in 14.3 overs or less, Mumbai would qualify on a better net run rate (NRR). If Mumbai lost or achieved the target in more than 14.3 overs, Rajasthan would qualify. It seemed simple enough.What eventually transpired turned out to be much more complex for the coach and players but a delight for mathematicians.
After 14.2 overs, Mumbai's score was 188; they needed two off the next ball to advance. They ran one but Ambati Rayudu was run-out going for the second. He was devastated, thinking his team had failed to advance. But he was mistaken. After 14.3, the scores were tied. If Mumbai scored one run off the next ball, they would win but Rajasthan would qualify. If they scored two or more, Mumbai's NRR would be better and they would qualify.
Running two was not an option since the match would be over after the first run. They needed to hit a boundary. As it turned out, Aditya Tare hit a six off 14.4 and Mumbai advanced.However, there were many other interesting scenarios that could have played out. Some have suggested that Rajasthan could have bowled a wide or a no-ball off 14.4 but that would not have worked since the ball would not have counted and Mumbai would have won in 14.3.
Now suppose 14.4 was a dot ball. Mumbai would still qualify if they scored a four from either 14.5 or 14.6. However, Rajasthan could prevent that by bowling a wide or a no-ball off 14.5, in which case Mumbai would win but Rajasthan would qualify. (A no-ball would be safer since an attempted wide might go wrong–it could go for four, or the batsman might reach it.) If 14.4, 14.5 and 14.6 were all dot balls, Mumbai could still qualify by hitting a six off 15.1. But Rajasthan would be foolish to let it get so far.
This seemingly simple situation has, once again, highlighted the need for a team's management to be au courant with the complexities and subtleties of NRR calculations. They must be aware of all the possibilities in a given situation. If not, they could fail to capitalise on a winning position, as the West Indies have done in the recent past.
Noel Kalicharan,
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