I have been wondering at the tendency of playing for the gallery and bantering in the Parliament, moreso at presentations of national budgets. After all, a budget is serious business!It is clear, however, that Parliamentarians of all persuasions are either not able or not impelled to base their contributions to the debates on sound research and analysis.Is this due, in part at least, to the absence of raw data forthcoming from relevant Government agencies such as the CSO?
Some would say that, in its finality, a budget is a political presentation.While I have no quarrel with this, as budgets will always be expected to contain strong political overtones, nevertheless the extent to which "pure politics" has overcome sound economics in recent budget preparations is a matter of concern.
Thus, I do recall that there was much apprehension in informed quarters, in respect of basing budget revenue expectations for the 2014/2015 period on the assumption of a figure of US$80 average per barrel of crude oil (which was perhaps a maximum).
In hindsight, this was but a gamble. Would it not have been more prudent had the minister and his advisers based the budget revenue, (and thus expenditure) expectations on a more conservative and lower figure with the hope that should US$80 be attained, this would provide a windfall?
Instead, the chickens have come home to roost with ministers only now realising, with an oil price hovering around US$60 per barrel, that many of the projects in which they had revelled in strong political overtones during the debate, will now have to be curtailed. Will it be possible to maintain the social largesse which has been a feature of this year's budget?
Indeed, the present experience brings to light one other disconcerting matter–the tendency to disregard, on the altar of political expediency–measures which if implemented, may be expected, over time, to revamp the path on which the country's economy has been heading for several years.
Instead, recent budget presentations have turned out to be, in the main, accounting revenue and expenditure exercises with little or no cogent economic analyses. One is therefore led to conclude that the 2014/2015 budget presentation and the debates in consequence, were but an exercise in futility given the new imperatives–imperatives which now dictate that the true budget be now prepared.
Errol OC Cupid,
Trincity, Tacarigua