An ongoing tracking opinion poll being conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) is showing a close election between the ruling PPP/C and the opposition PNC (renamed APNU)-AFC with the incumbent party just marginally ahead.
The PPP never lost an election in Guyana but is facing its toughest election in its electoral history with a significant percentage of its traditional PPP supporters defecting to the opposition while traditional PNC supporters are cheering for their party to vote out the PPP. The poll finds that voters are sharply divided by race in how they will vote, which party (alliance) they want to win, and in their views on which party they feel will (and want to) win the May 11 general elections. Almost every African and person of mixed descent feel the opposition PNC-led coalition will win, while most Indians, Chinese and (Whites) Portuguese feel the PPP will (and want to) win. The native Amerindians are divided with some saying PPP will win, some saying the opposition coalition will win, and the others saying it is too close to call.
Among those Indians who say the election is too close, they want the PPP to win. And among those Africans who say the election is too close to call, they want the coalition (many calling it the PNC) to win. Amerindians who say the election is too close to call want the PPP to win. The majority of Amerindians are supporting the PPP, saying the PPP has done a lot for them since 1992 while they suffered under the PNC dictatorship prior to 1992. The election has become close because a significant number of disgruntled Indians are breaking from their traditional voting pattern, angry with the PPP for neglecting them and for various other reasons, saying they will cast ballot for the opposition coalition to bring about change.
It is not a pro-coalition vote but an angry anti-PPP vote to teach the ruling party a lesson for ignoring them and attending to the needs of supporters of the PNC. Those Indians who are supporting the coalition continue to make the distinction that they are voting for the AFC component of the coalition and not APNU. The AFC is supported primarily by Indians and funded by Indian businesses, many of which complain of a lack of government contracts. If Indians were to return to the fold, the PPP will eke out a narrow victory. Analogously, the poll finds very little cross-racial voting among Africans for the Indian-based PPP. While Indians are splitting their vote, Africans are lining up solidly behind the PNC (APNU).
Most Indians and Amerindians, as well as most of the sprinkling of Portuguese and Chinese, say they are voting for the PPP because the coalition is rife with PNC officials who were connected to the atrocities committed during the PNC dictatorship. They express a fear of resurrection of the dreaded mandatory national service where women were raped, ban of essential goods like flour and channa, seizure of farm produce by state companies, preventing private companies from engaging in imports and exports, currency restrictions, property seizure, and reintroduction of government owned businesses that will squeeze out privately owned businesses, among other concerns. A large majority of voters say they do not want a repeat of the abuses that took place when the PNC was in office. Asked which party or alliance they think will win the election, 35 per cent say PPP/C, 34 per cent the coalition, 24 per cent "too close to call," and 7 per cent no response.
Vishnu Bisram