And there we have it. The results of the election in the United Kingdom (UK) which concluded on the night of May 7, certainly shocked everyone who had read into the polls right up to the election day itself.
The Tories (or Conservative Party) under Prime Minister David Cameron, who had governed in an uneasy coalition government with the Liberal Democrats since May 2010, were expected to lose seats this time around. What happened of course, was the opposite, where for the first time since 1992 under the then Prime Minister John Major, the Tories achieved, albeit miniscule, a majority in the House of Commons, ie 331 seats out of 650 in total.
This improvement came at the expense of the minor partner of the coalition who lost 49 seats overall and is now a shell of its former self.
The challenge for the Prime Minister over the next five years will be to hold this small majority together and to avoid the chaos which betook his party in the mid-1990s which saw them being locked out of power for some 13 years.
On the opposition's side, it was simply tragic and disappointing. Not only did Labour cumulatively lose seats, they were obliterated in Scotland where a surging sense of nationalism allowed the Scottish National Party (SNP) to gain some 50 seats since the last election and in the process, wiping out senior incumbents of the Labour Party.
In England as well, it was mostly bad news with even the Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls losing his seat to the Tories. With the resignation of the party leader, Ed Miliband, the party has no choice but to move on, decide on its future and rebuild.
Now enter T&T, in an election year as well, but with different electoral dynamics. For the ruling People's Partnership (PP), the electoral strategy is one-tracked, similar to that of the Tories in the UK. With their decisive victory in May 2010 attaining 29 out of 41 seats, they are now on the defensive after many horrendous missteps and allegations, weakened partners, declining popularity and an increasingly hostile electorate.
For them, the electoral strategy it is to hold on their core seats and a few marginal seats as it is a foregone conclusion that their totals will be smaller. The similarity is that the PP is undoubtedly dominated by the UNC, and like the Tories in the UK, will be probably and unobtrusively looking to win a UNC-only outright majority of at least 21 seats even in the context of the partnership whereby, there is only a loss of eight seats (which will be mostly from the TOP and COP) from the original configuration in 2010.
This is especially as reality hits home, with the COP now clearly on its deathbed, being sustained by failing life support, and the other parties such as the TOP and NJAC now awaiting their respective autopsies in the political morgue as to fully understand their precipitous demise. As pejorative as the UNC-only strategy is, on election night we will see how successful this succinct approach was.
For the opposition PNM, it is far different than Labour in the UK. There is no surging Tobago nationalism like what Labour faced in Scotland and the party is also poised to make gains in seats, particularly in the East-West corridor that it lost in 2010.
However, the party will be tested in that it must capture key marginal seats that are currently being held by the PP. The obvious main targets will be San Fernando West, Tunapuna and Moruga/Tableland (even if St Joseph is lost) with the PNM assumedly presupposing that it regains its former seats of Lopinot/Bon Air West, La Horquetta Talparo, D'Abadie/O'Meara, Arima, Toco/Sangre Grande and both Tobago seats.
One thing is certain, for the PNM to march to a parliamentary majority, the aforementioned scenario must hold with it winning at least one of the three critical marginal seats (again supposing that St Joseph is lost) for a small majority and at least two of the three for comfort.
The big difference is, that unlike before, where the elections were fought in four or five marginal seats, this election will be fought in twice that number of seats as the PP plays defence and the PNM goes on the offensive to recapture government.
For the PP, now with a governing record, it will be to convince the populace that their performance was above par and there needs to be continuity; for the PNM under relatively new leadership, the argument will be that the PP's performance was terrible, riddled with mistakes and that they can provide stable, effective and more accountable government.
As the political polls are taken with a pinch of salt which they always must be, only time, strategy and turnout on election day will tell.
Luke Gittens