Currently the nation's gas processors at Pt Lisas claim the supply is 20 per cent short of their needs according to reports.
The result is massive losses of revenue to the country at a time when fiscal revenues are low due to the prolonged low oil price. I estimate that "20 per cent" is about 7-800 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD).
Minister Kevin Ramnarine, after years of statements that the shortage was only temporary due to maintenance on the offshore platforms, finally confessed that it was a more serious problem that will not be fixed until 2017.
That's when the bpTT Juniper platform is scheduled to be on production.
Press statements indicated that Juniper will have "a capacity" of 590 mmcfd (still doesn't mean that they will actually produce that much).
The Minister has stated that the Mitsubishi/Massey project is approved and will start construction. This reportedly has a capacity of 250 mmcfd (producing mainly methanol which we already make in abundance and is starving for gas).
So the projected supply/usage in 2017 appears to be Juniper 590, minus current shortage 750, minus Mitsubishi 250, giving a continuing deficit of 410 mmcfd.
Now hopefully the Minister knows about some other supplies that will be coming on stream, but these have not been publicised.
And it must be noted that in the intervening years 2015-2017, the currently producing fields will be more depleted and not capable of producing their current volumes, which means the predicted shortage above is an underestimate.
So the next government looks set to face shortages and unfulfilled contract obligations to the processors.
If there is something dreadfully wrong with this calculation I do wish the Minister would explain himself with the real figures.
Forget about exploration. You can't make commitments based on assumed exploration success.
Reg Potter
Glencoe