James L Gelvin is a professor of Modern Middle Eastern History at the University of California-the go-to guy for analyses when the powder keg called the Middle East shows signs of another eruption. The year-long developments there had Gelvin working overtime, crisscrossing the media circuits. Amid all the interviews, he found time to deliver a literary autopsy on a crisis with global implications. True to form, Gelvin's work is painstakingly detailed. He challenges the worn theory that Islamic fundamentalists are the puppeteers behind these unrests. Instead, he examines the socio-political dynamics of the region's key players, avoiding gross generalisations.
He explores demographics, political and economic governance, secularism, sectarianism, monarchical rule, and every nuance of Middle Eastern expression that has added to the social cauldron called The Arab Spring. But, he avoids using the term, calling it premature and misleading. Spring connotes a rebirth, something of joy expectation-a reality absent in that region-at least for now.
Gelvin findings are provocative. He evaluates the impact of the region's "youth bulge," with approximately 60 per cent of the population of the Arab world under the age of thirty. In Egypt, he comments, "young people with college degrees rank highest among the unemployed of any sector of youth, and in Syria, a vast majority of college graduates spend at least four years looking for employment before landing a job."
Gelvin assesses the impact of cumbersome some governmental take-over of economies that led to sluggish GDPs, unsustainable subsidies, lack of economic diversification. However, calls for socio-economic change-at the behest of the IMF, led to deregulation, and what he calls, "Crony Capitalism." Gelvin posits that decaying economies, suffocating social control caused by decades-old state of emergencies, suspension of habeas corpus, a ubiquitous security apparatus, and the total disregard for transparency and accountability, produced the perfect storm that has raged with few signs of abatement. The author pays particular attention to Syria, and for obvious reasons. A staunch Iranian ally with sway over the influential reach of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria has positioned itself as a deal maker in the region, especially in regards to any peace accord with Israel. Gelvin ascribes Orwellianism, and Machiavellian politics to Syria's response to social unrest. It's about naked survival of the minority Alawite clan that has ruled for decades. The brutality is incredulous and unrivalled in the region.
However, Gelvin, I believe is wrong when he attributes Syria's close ties with Iran as purely a geopolitical and economic strategy. Sunni-Shia rivalry in this particular conflict - as in Bahrain, is far from tangential. Overall, Uprisings proves engaging and educational. Despite its robust academic grounding, its appeal transcends the walls of higher pedagogy. In many ways it's a handbook on Arab politics with all its manifestations. Localised politics one might argue, but with lessons that are far reaching. A warning, one might say to governments disconnected from the pulse of its young people. Oftentimes criticised as the iTunes generation, steeped in self entitlements and the whimsical-they have proven quite capable of starting a revolution on a dime-without firing a single shot. Just ask Mubarak, Saleh, Abedine Ben Ali, and Colonel Gaddafi (if he was alive).
• Dr Glenville Ashby is a New York correspondent for the Guardian Media Group
The Arab Uprising: What Everyone needs to know by James L. Gelvin
Oxford University Press, 2012
ISBN 978-0-19-989177-1
Available: Amazon.com
Ratings: ****: Highly Recommended
