The question of performance by the People's Partnership (PP) Government is-just how much? The midway mark for the political term has found the ruling PP administration wanting on several fronts, but not necessarily all.
That's the view of analysts. The PP, which was elected on May 24, 2010 marked half time recently, balancing its achievements with a growing battle on a series of challenges, attempting to reinforce its image of a functioning, capable coalition and ensuring fulfillment of manifesto promises-some of which have fallen by the wayside as the PP tries to cope.
Political analyst Hamid Ghany for instance said: "The Partnership is lasting much longer than many had expected. The only fracture has been a split within the Movement for Social Justice (MSJ) with one faction led by David Abdulah leaving the Partnership and the other faction loyal to Errol McLeod staying within the Partnership. However, the official party symbol and the official party apparatus is with Abdulah, it's difficult to tell where the support for the party really lies.
"Nevertheless, there are real challenges facing the Partnership as it experiments with consociational governance in the context of our Westminster-Whitehall system of government continues to defy the logic of political fracture and destruction in this multiethnic society.
The energies and skills that it took to win the election of 2010 are not the energies and skills that are required to govern this country. The cross-ethnic coalition of the UNC, COP, TOP, NJAC and the MSJ has not been damaged by the split within the MSJ."
Ghany added, "The Section 34 fiasco was the biggest mistake made by the Partnership and they continue to address the issues raised by it despite the decisive action taken by the Prime Minister to dismiss former justice minister Herbert Volney. The issue is one that will follow them to the next general election. How it survives is based on whether people believe that there was a conspiracy or whether they accept that the error has been corrected.
"The Partnership, on the other hand, has had to deal with internal divisions within the COP over whether it should leave the Partnership or stay. That debate is still raging within the COP and could threaten to divide the party mainly because the fundamental question that the COP has to settle is whether it wishes to be a party that will share power as either a permanent or temporary coalition partner with the UNC or whether it wishes to stand alone, win alone, or lose alone as a single party competing for power for itself only. The COP itself continues to make noises that suggest that they want to be in and out of the government at the same time."
Ghany continued, "The biggest achievement for the Partnership has been its ability to provide stable government in the face of contesting partners within its ranks thereby proving that the coalition method can work. The key to all of that is leadership and Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has been able to hold the Partnership together in the face of conducting annual performance reviews of her administration and making Cabinet and ministerial changes accordingly.
She has introduced a new level of ministerial accountability for performance and no one can say that they were not given a chance to perform.
"The TOP has been granted segmented autonomy (one of the main features of consociationalism) in relation to Tobago as neither the UNC nor the COP is intending to contest elections there. That has allowed the TOP to be a part of the Central Government and now seek to enhance its stock within the Partnership by contesting for control of the Tobago House of Assembly (THA) in the upcoming elections."
Ghany cited major policy initiatives, "Like the removal of VAT from most food items; expansion of the road networks in the deep South; expanding the UWI campus network; the building of a children's hospital in Couva; the creation of a Science Park in Indian Trail, Couva; the continuation of the laptop programme for school children; the East Port-of-Spain development initiative; and many others hold forth the promise of a better life for many citizens."
He added, "The Government is now at midterm and therefore like any other government at midterm, they are likely to have less popularity than before. Their fortunes can improve once they get to complete most of their projects and the tangible benefits become apparent. To this end, they have to manage all of the delays associated with any of their projects as days lost will bring incomplete projects by the time the next elections are due in 2015.
"The leadership skills required to lead a coalition government are very different from leading a single-party government. Sharing power and implementing cross-ethnic policy measures are different skills from leading a dominant single party in a society like ours where it is becoming increasingly more difficult for one size to fit all. All parties now recognise that and Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar has so far been able to sustain her government with an inclusive style of leadership."
Political scientist Derek Ramsamooj said: "The popularity of the People's Partnership amongst the UNC hard core electorate would be intact. Deliverables of public goods such as improved roadways, constant water supply and the availability of governmental services in the traditional UNC constituencies would ensure the sustainability of the PP approval rating amongst the UNC traditional electorate.
"The political brand of Kamla Persad-Bissessar has indeed been compromised by the inappropriate behaviour of key Cabinet colleagues. The Prime Minister's political brand of sustainable pragmatic politics must recognise that 'a political asset of yesterday may be a political liability of today' and the termination of Cabinet appointments is a necessary political action for improving approval ratings.
Ramsamooj added, "The swing voters in the marginal polling divisions in the marginal constituencies would be the first voting bloc to becoming disillusioned. The basis for their voting pattern would be the desire for political changes in the system of governance combined with a default 'anti-Patrick Manning vote.'
"The swing voters influenced by the change factor of 'better governance' and the desire for sensitive political leadership would be concerned by the rhetoric and actions of the PP Government." Ramsamooj said the first-time voter who premises their vote on sustainable jobs and quality of life issues would also be of concern.
"After two-and-a-half years PP Government's ability to stimulate the economy and to create sustainable jobs is questionable. The business community would also have some misgivings about the PP Government's capacity to diversify the economy, stimulate more private sector investment and to reduce the State welfare jobs programme," Ramsamooj said.
Ramsamooj added Government's attempts to decentralise government goods and services away from Port-of-Spain is a step in the right direction. "The ability to deliver public goods and services at the community level is one method of serving the people.
Public goods such as regular water supply, continuous investment in education and access to efficient, effective health care to all communities are notable programmes. The delivering of these services to previously negligent communities would be one of the PP Government's bigger achievements," he added.
"The PP Government should focus on delivering a better quality of life to our citizenry. If they can deliver better government goods and services in a safe environment then the need for constant public relations would be diminished. The PP Government capacity to make good news by the delivery of public goods would enhance their approval ratings."
"The inability of the PP Government to improve and modernise the Public Service and to restructure our national institutions to enhance our governance framework continue to elude. The electorate have recognised that the PP Government has yet to deliver on constitutional reform, campaign finance reform, right to recall and term limits.
The need for public procurement legislation that allows for a more stringent public scrutiny would resolve the national concerns of a lack of accountability and transparency when public monies are utilised,"?Ramsamooj added.
Analyst Bishnu Ragoonath said the PP still has some popularity among its core support base. "I don't think that will change significantly. That will remain. If they can boast of producing a 10,000 member march, then they must have some popularity still. It's not as though they've totally lost it.
"I don't think they've been able to win any significant support from fence sitters or from another party. The fact is they're doing what they have to do and still retaining their base is a good thing for them at this point. But might I?point out that the first two or three years of a term is not a time when a government will win new support or is looking to win new support. In that period traditionally they implement polices and what is necessary for a country, some of it unpalatable."
Ragoonath added, "It is the fourth year and towards the end in the fifth is when they bring out their sweetheart policies and programmes to win new support. So no government pushes to try and win new support right through a term or at midterm when it has its work to do. So I?don't regard the current situation as a negative against them.