Jack Warner stammers but he's charismatic in his speeches. Khadijah Ameen is a good looker but she's doesn't have a record of accomplishments. Avinash Singh is young and fresh but he's associated with the Opposition.These were the views of political analyst Dr Winford James. The three are in the race for the Chaguanas West by-election on July 29.
There are three other candidates–Dr Kirk Meighoo of the Democratic National Assembly (DNA), Ishmael Samad of the Party for Integrity and Morality in Politics (PIMP) and Oliver Norman, National Coalition for Transformation (NCT).But James said they did not stand a chance. He said Meighoo was an idealist, Samad was the joker of the pack and Norman was unknown.
Another political analyst, Maukesh Basdeo said for the three candidates–Meighoo, Samad and Norman–their parties were more symbolic since they are contesting for a cause.James said if Warner won the seat through his Independent Liberal Party (ILP) it could be a tsunami that would break up the People's Partnership Government.He said, "If one man stands up against you and beats you in your constituency...it is more than a wake up call.
"It is a signal that will be sent to the political observers in the country that a massive shift is occurring in popular politics."
Jack's track recordas MP stands out
James, in an interview on Friday, said one of Warner's strengths was his record of service to the constituency. He said most people felt Warner's record was solid, that he served the constituency, provided physical infrastructure and social amenities, and he helped people on a personal level.He said the only objection he heard was the one made by Dr Roodal Moonilal about the small number of people who received HDC houses.
Basdeo expressed similar sentiments. He said Warner's track record as a MP "stands out."He listed Warner's ability to deliver services to the people and his popular appeal to the masses as his strengths.In addition, James said Warner had financial resources that can win people over to his politics.
He said Warner had a better sense than most people of the internal workings of the UNC and the Government and brought the perspective of an insider, being the party's chairman up to April this year and also holding critical portfolios in the Government.James said Warner was charismatic in the way he designed his public speeches despite his stammers."He overcomes that impediment quite well."People want to hear him speak.
"He uses very interesting metaphors that have people wanting to hear what he has to say."He's a mark-busting kind of speaker and people are interested in that kind of 'comess'."
His weaknesses...allegations of corruption
Both analysts felt the allegations of corruption surrounding Warner was one of his weaknesses.James said, "There's a large and very dark cloud of corruption and fraud that surround his head and people think that there are financial dealings not above board for which he is prosecutable, and so there is what we might call an immoral and unethical side to him that some people cannot stomach."He said there was an uncertainty about the people who Warner had attracted to the ILP.
He said, "You get the impression that it is Jack and others that are not as distinguished."Like James, Basdeo said there was uncertainty regarding the people associated with the ILP.Basdeo said, "The formation of his party to me is a weakness."I know it was formed a few weeks ago but it doesn't have a structure."Of course, he said it will come in the future, but we don't know who will be the other people on the executive of the party."
Basdeo also said a major weakness was the allegations of corruption with Fifa and Concacaf which can "haunt him."He said, "Another weakness is the way the campaign is progressing."It is becoming very nasty with the kinds of statements going back and forth by Warner against his former colleagues and likewise."I think that can be a disadvantage because if he pursues it, any chance in the future of bridging the divide or coming back with the PP could work against him."
Ameen puts a'good face' on UNC politics
James said Ameen was not a person who was ad hominem in her remarks. He said she appeared not to like "bacchanalian politics."He said, "The strength of this young lady is that she puts a good face on UNC politics because she's fresh. She doesn't look like she's an assassinator of people's characters."He said there was an innocence to her that could be politically attractive but "substance wise" no one knew what she could bring to the party or the Government.
"I suppose the proof of the pudding is in eating the fat...that we don't know much about her."He did say she wasn't "bad looking" and that she spoke "articulately enough" but that there was not much substance in what she said.
However, Basdeo said Ameen's involvement in local government for close to a decade could serve her well. He said the advantage she had was being chairman of the Tunapuna/Piarco Regional Corporation (TPRC) in that it will give her additional skills as a leader, if she's successful at the polls.He said another advantage she had was that she's chairman of the party.
...she has no record of accomplishments
Ameen came to notice when Warner demitted office as UNC chairman, and despite being chairman of the TPRC, James said not much was heard about her."In terms of her accomplishments, her trumpet was never blown before, probably it is being blown but it is a very, very, tame, very muted kind of trumpet," he said.But although she spoke fairly well, he said she spoke the same kind of superficial noises which come from Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar.
He said, "You attend to hear substance then you hear trivial matters being addressed, so I can't say that I have heard anything from her that tells me she might be a good addition to the Government, to the extent that it wants that kind of person."James said Ameen did not seem to have a record to stand on her own and lacked independence of position.Not to be derogatory, he said she might be a "political crapaud."
Singh is smart, optimistic, articulate...but he's with the Opposition
Like Ameen, James said Singh is also fresh.He said he was an honest, optimistic individual."One likes to listen to what Avinash is saying because the politics needs fresh blood and fresh hope, just as Khadijah in this case, but it's just that Khadijah belonged to a Government in which so many bad things are being said."Now PNM is in opposition and has a history and so Avinash has adopted that history."
James said there was a freshness about the way Singh spoke and likened it to Ameen."He's a smart young man. He's articulate. He has dreams for reforming the politics of the PNM and of T&T."That I believe is a strength and may appeal to some voters, but they are going to marry him to PNM and vote him in relation to PNM's chances of winning in a constituency like that. Those chances are slim."Basdeo said he did not know much about Singh except that he was a young farmer who had youth on his side.
Meet the candidates
Avinash Singh, PNM
�2 A 24-year-old graduate of the University of the West Indies, St Augustine
�2 Holder of a BSc in agricultural science and environmental natural resource management
�2 Youth policy co-ordinator of the Section 34 Group
�2Past secretary and current vice-president of the Felicity Farmers' Association
�2 Member of the Agricultural Society of T&T
�2 Farmer
Khadijah Ameen, UNC
�2 Youngest councillor elected in 2003
�2 Youngest mayor/chairman of a municipality in 2010 at 29
�2 Deputy chairman of the UNC and the chairman of the Tunapuna/Piarco Regional Corporation
�2 Project leader, European Union Project–Women as Agents of Change, 2012
�2 Member of T&T delegation to Caribbean Association of Local Government Authorities Conference in Belize, 2012
�2 Member of a Cabinet-appointed committee to oversee the development of St Augustine City as an Integrated Centre for Academic Excellence
�2 Executive member of T&T Association of Local Government Authorities, 2010
Jack Warner, ILP
�2 Former schoolteacher, businessman politician and former Fifa executive
�2 Born in Rio Claro on January 26, 1943
�2 Elected chairman of the UNC in October 2007
�2 Elected MP for Chaguanas West in 2007 general election
�2 Re-elected in Chaguanas West in 2010 with the highest national vote total–over 18,000
�2 Appointed Works and Transport Minister in May 2010
�2 Appointed National Security Minister in June 2012
�2 Resigned as Minister of National Security on April 21, 2013; as UNC chairman on April 22 and as Chaguanas West MP on April 26
�2 Member of the Fifa executive committee since 1983, and Concacaf president since 1990
�2 In June 2011, Warner announced his resignation from all his positions in international football after being implicated in numerous corruption allegations
Dr Kirk Meighoo, DNA
�2 Political scientist
�2 Former temporary independent senator, October 2002 to September 2007
�2 Former lecturer in the department of behavioral sciences at UWI
Ishmael Samad, PIMP
�2 69-year-old social activist
�2 Attempted to make a citizen's arrests on Dr Wayne Kublalsingh last year during his hunger strike
�2 Found guilty of unlawfully and maliciously damaging the gate to Calder Hart's home by senior Magistrate Lucina Cardenas-Ragoonanan
Oliver Norman, NCT
�2 28-year-old UTT student