With hours away from tomorrow's local government elections, a poll conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (Nacta) has revealed a three-way split in voter support for the People's National Movement (PNM), People's Partnership (PP) and the Independent Liberal Party (ILP).The poll found that the closeness of the contests brought about by the splitting of the votes and undecided voters make the outcome unpredictable, but noted that election day machinery holds the key to the outcome.
The poll showed that the PNM was set to take back control of several corporations it had lost in the July 2010 local government elections, while the inroads the PP had made in 2010 were being reversed because of the splintering of its traditional base."While the traditional PNM base remains largely intact, the PP's base is split with almost half going to the newly formed ILP," the poll stated.The tracking survey was conducted last month, interviewing 3,300 voters.
The projections of outcome in each corporation are updated based on interviews of an average of 200 voters reflecting the demographics of the population.Overall, the poll showed that 78 per cent of voters overwhelmingly said that the split in support of the PP base gives the PNM the edge to win more corporations and more seats than the PP and ILP.
The splitting of the votes, the poll stated, puts the PNM as the front runner in seats and corporations that it would have never won in a two-way contest, especially in heartland UNC areas.In Chaguanas, the split vote has put the PNM in the lead in several seats where it would have had no chance in an alliance.Also, the split vote allows the PNM to make inroads in Sangre Grande and Siparia that could cost the UNC (PP) control of both corporations.The splintering of the vote gives the PNM a chance to tie in Rio Claro/Mayaro.
Additionally, the divided votes allow the PNM to pick up several seats in Arima, San Fernando and Diego Martin, putting theparty ahead.The PNM's hold in Port-of-Spain, Laventille and Point Fortin are not in danger though the ILP has mounted a very strong challenge, winning over 25 per cent of the votes.
The poll showed the ILP has made serious inroads in traditional UNC base such as Chaguanas, Princes Town, Couva, Penal, Sangre Grande, Rio Claro and Siparia, thereby getting a lot of traditional PNM support and capturing almost all of the support of the Congress of the People (COP).The COP only has a chance in seats where the UNC has traditionally been strong and even in these seats it faces an uphill battle against the ILP.
Voters indicated that they liked Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar but not several of her ministers, MPs, councillors and corporation chairmen and will be casting an anti-incumbent vote.However, when asked if they would support the PM's healthcare card, 91 per cent answered in the affirmative, thereby increasing her ratings, which had plummeted in the last few months.