Last update: 12-Dec-2013 8:49 pm
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Trinidad & Tobago Guardian Online
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Close Race in St Jospeh
The Independent Liberal Party (ILP) gains ground even as the United National Congress (UNC) loses ground, according to a Guardian Media Ltd poll conducted in the 12 polling stations in the St Joseph constituency. A total of 600 people were polled and that collated data showed that the ILP had the biggest jump in approval in that area.
In one week, the collected information showed Jack Warner’s party gained just over six per cent in the approval ratings, while a previous deadlock between the PNM and UNC widened by four per cent. This week, when voters were asked which party they would choose in the November 4 by-election, the PNM came in first with 31.5 per cent, the ILP stood at 30.8 per cent and the UNC stood at 27 per cent.
But in the Sunday Guardian poll last week, the same question gave different findings, leaving the PNM and PP in a dead heat. “Last week, there was a statistical dead heat between the PNM and the PP (31.4 percent to 31.2 per cent), with the ILP in third with a rating of 24.6 per cent,” the poll revealed. The poll stated that this week all candidates are known and the coding for the PP that was used last week has been changed to UNC.
According to the poll, “This week, the PNM has virtually remained where they were (31.5 per cent up from 31.4 per cent). The ILP has increased from 24.6 per cent to 30.8 per cent, while the UNC earned a rating of 27 per cent, down from the 31.2 per cent earned by the PP when that coding was used.”
However, the poll revealed that the race was still too close to call. Meanwhile, the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (Nacta) poll showed that split votes in the upcoming St Joseph by-election could put PNM candidate Terrence Deyalsingh ahead of the competition. The poll seemed to validate what Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said at the close of the United National Congress campaign for the local government elections.
In a release yesterday, Nacta said it conducted an ongoing tracking opinion poll which put Deyalsingh out front to win the November 4 by-election. “The UNC’s Ian Alleyne and ILP’s Om Lalla are trailing slightly behind with the others drawing insignificant support and projected to lose their deposits. The findings show that if the votes were not split, Deyalsingh would have virtually no chance of wresting the seat that was held by the UNC,” the release said.
The poll also reveal that while more people prefer Lalla for the seat, party loyalty shaped voting behaviour putting Alleyne ahead of Lalla. “The overwhelming majority of Peoples Partnership and ILP supporters feel Lalla is the better candidate over Alleyne and the former would have a better chance of winning the seat,” Nacta said. “However, people are voting along party lines resulting in Lalla trailing the PNM and UNC candidates,” the said.
The poll also highlighted that the electorate was voting along traditional ethnic lines which saw the PNM retaining the bulk of its support, putting Deyalsingh in the lead while the UNC and ILP are splitting the People Partnership’s base of support causing the two parties to trail the PNM. The findings show the PNM with 33 per cent of popular support, followed by UNC with 30 per cent and ILP 24 per cent.
The tracking survey was conducted over the past three weeks and collated interviews from 450 potential voters reflecting the demographics of the population. Nacta says the poll has a four per cent margin of error. Both the GML and Nacta polls have a four per cent margin of error.
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