While three political experts agree the People's National Movement (PNM) won Monday's St Joseph by-election by default, one says the PNM, as an "alternative government," needs to be transparent and open to scrutiny of its plans, policies and workings.The experts yesterday made their comments on the outcome of Monday's by-election, when the PNM's Terrence Deyalsingh won the seat by a narrow margin–779 votes–over the United National Congress's (UNC) Ian Alleyne.
Political analysts Winford James and Bishnu Ragoonath, and former public service head Reginald Dumas all said the PNM won by default.Ragoonath didn't see Monday as a genuine victory for the PNM and couldn't see the party presenting itself as a 2015 general-election winner on the basis of default wins.Dumas said the people don't seem to be as enthused with the PNM as the PNM thinks.
James said in recent elections the PNM has in a sense been winning by default, since the population had no viable alternative to the UNC, and owing to the UNC/PP's deterioration."This therefore shouldn't lull the PNM into complacency, as the people haven't forgotten the damage (Patrick) Manning did to the PNM and the country," he said.
Saying there's been a revision of the politics and many may have stayed away and not voted, James said the PNM must rise to new standards of behaviour and part of that includes instituting a certain transparency–not only trying to ensure it where the national executive is concerned, but also where the PNM is concerned.
He agreed that the PNM, which has presented itself as the alternative government and a government in waiting, should be open to scrutiny itself, and must also consult with the people. He said while the party was a culture on its own it could not, as an alternative government, operate in private.
"It should have been doing that since day one," James said, adding the PNM should be open to questions about itself and its plans. He said if PNM wanted to keep doing things privately, it should consider the public mood, since there is indication that part of the population is done with that modus operandi, and base support alone isn't enough to put one in power and keep one there. He said any party needed independent votes, which must be earned.
"And the only way to get that is through total overhaul of the way parties do business," James added.He said the PNM had to come up with alternative programmes and these were not being heard. He warned there has been a change in public responses and swing voters particularly are now willing to punish any party that takes them for granted.
James said speeches from UNC officers on Monday also suggested they anticipated questions about the Prime Minister's leadership following the defeat and attempted to convey no challenge is being contemplated."It seems a deliberate strategy to put her on a pedestal regarding her leadership, trying to show unity in the face of defeat," he said.
"But I don't think anyone in that party presents himself as a challenger to her leadership, since there's nobody I can glean who has national appeal and who can cross the tribal borders. Nobody comes forward to me with any semblance of an alternative agenda for the leadership. Roodal Moonilal, for instance, is clearly unsuitable."James said the UNC didn't know how to change direction, was bogged down with corruption allegations "every Monday morning" and its timing on some things came across as insular.
He said Jack Warner was a challenger for leadership material and "we see the consequences of that." On Warner's ILP, he said third forces aren't "a good place to be" since they can hardly win power in a country like T&T, though they are good for coalition governance. He said people desperately craved unity across tribal borders and grasped coalition opportunities such as in 2010, "which turn out to be so much chaff in the wind, easily blown away."
James said that also happened with the Congress of the People (COP), whose leader Prakash Ramadhar turned into someone tilting at everything in the Partnership.Analyst Bishnu Ragoonath added, "What we're seeing, I'm not sure if it is the end of the PP, but the UNC getting back wind under its sails, as UNC will use the St Joseph defeat to return to vote-your-kind politics and PNM will do the same.
"I don't think Monday was a genuine victory for PNM. They didn't do anything to win, they did it by default as PP simply lost it obviously to the split vote."I don't think it's fair the PNM could represent itself as a winner for the 2015 general election on the basis of default, so PNM shouldn't get swell-headed and believe they can continue rolling to victory and nothing could stop them now. There must be a fair fight."
Ragoonath added, "In this election the UNC pulled out the stops and we could well see more of that being done in the next 18 months. That's a long time in politics and anything can happen. PNM doesn't have the base the Government has to go after the UNC and because they don't, it doesn't guarantee them a 2015 win."He said Jack Warner is the ILP and if Warner withdrew from politics, "That's the end of it."
Ragoonath felt once the ILP survived and headed to 2015, however, the PP would assess its strength and if it appeared strong enough to take votes significantly, might enter into a partnership."Remember, these last two elections in which they (UNC, ILP) stayed apart weren't for government. The next election will be for that. On whether a renewed partnership between those two groups might be credible, well, politics makes strange bedfellows," he said.Ragoonath said the UNC would also have to decide on the PM's leadership.
Dumas said, "If you add the number of non-PNM votes together, it was bigger than the PNM vote."The split vote the UNC is talking about also means a number of people who voted UNC once now voted for others, including ILP, so UNC must consider why that occurred."