The recent announcement that BPTT will not have enough natural gas to supply Atlantic LNG's Train One should be a warning, not only to Government but also to citizens of the importance for the country's economy to be diversified; shifting our dependence from oil and natural gas to other sectors.
Dr Ronald Ramkissoon
During a telephone interview with Guardian Media yesterday, economist Dr Ronald Ramkissoon said: "...it is almost as if the universe is warning us that we need to do what we have been talking about but not actually investing in which is non-oil economic activity—cocoa and all the other products".
Ramkissoon believes it is still too early for a definitive prediction of the shortage's impact on the country's economy, however, he does not believe it is a calamity.
"The bit of news reminds us that there is uncertainty in the area of natural gas and oil and anything else. There is no guarantee that we would have a proper running economy if we do not plan strategically. There is no guarantee that an economy will continue to move up or down which is why we must constantly be surveying what is happening with our export product globally."
He explained that for some time now the country has been having uncertainty in the production of natural gas which has led to shortages of the commodity while it has become expensive to find crude oil
"We've had fall in production, we have had wild fluctuations in prices so that uncertainty is part of the business that we have been in for the last 100 years in oil and gas. In that same breath, there are times when the news is good so that while this is, on the face if it, not positive news, there are times when there would be oil finds and gas finds and then we get all happy about that...one has to take it as it comes," he said.
Dr Roger Hosein
Holding a similar belief, economist Dr Roger Hosein, told Guardian Media in an interview yesterday that this announcement brings an opportunity to "look deeper and to think deeper on how to stimulate economic growth in the none energy export sector".
"Whilst on the one hand it (the shortage) would be a tremendous blow to the Trinidad and Tobago economy in the medium term, on the other hand it sends a serious, sharp warning for the state to change the thinking towards how to generate economic activity in Trinidad and Tobago and to bring none energy sector growth more into the forefront for focus," Hosein said.
He argued that the non-energy export sector had less price and production volatility when compared to the energy sector.
Hosein said, "This volatility in the energy sector for both a price and production perspective has crippled and slowed the growth performance of the Trinidad and Tobago economy since 2008."
With the Mid-Year Budget Review just one day away, Hosein anticipates that both Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley and the Minister of Finance Colm Imbert would use the opportunity to ease tensions and concerns of the public in light of the announcement of the shortage.
"What they would need to do, if it is possible, is lay out countermeasures as to how they would deal with it instantaneously and then over the medium term period given that Dragon field gas is already under query and under threat because of the situation in Venezuela."
Gregory McGuire
The solution to deal with this shortage in the short-term, economist Gregory McGuire suggests "is really around utilizing the excess supply from other producers and or utilising the excess supply from BP itself".
He believes that since this gap between the supply and demand of natural gas has arisen"there will be much greater interest on the part of suppliers to explore for new gas".
On Friday, BPTT made the announcement that "Recent disappointing results from our infill drilling programmes have had a material impact on our forecasted production, especially in 2020 and 2021. This means there are challenges to our supply of gas to Train 1 after 2019".