The Barbados-based Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) and the University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona (UWI CSGM) are urging governments, businesses, farmers and households across the region to brace for potentially severe climate extremes as El Niño conditions continue to strengthen.
The agencies warn that the intensifying El Niño is expected to exacerbate the hot and dry conditions already affecting many Caribbean territories, increasing the risk of drought, extreme heat, wildfires and marine heatwaves.
El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterised by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is known to influence weather patterns worldwide, often triggering droughts, heatwaves and flooding in tropical regions.
CIMH and UWI CSGM said the Caribbean must be particularly vigilant as the period from August to October coincides with the peak of the region's Heat Season. Unseasonably dry conditions are of particular concern given that the Caribbean is expected to enter its climatological Dry Season around November.
Forecasts suggest the dry conditions will persist into 2027, while potentially record-breaking temperatures could emerge during next year's Heat Season, beginning as early as March.
CIMH climatologist Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck said El Niño conditions strengthened rapidly from weak to moderate levels between May and July this year. The latest monitoring data indicate further intensification, with highly confident forecasts pointing to a very strong El Niño between October and December 2026.
Those conditions are expected to persist through the peak of the Caribbean Dry Season in March 2027.
Dr Van Meerbeeck noted that historically, El Niño has been associated with severe droughts, including those experienced in 2009-10 and 2014-16. It also heightens the risk of extreme humid heat, wildfires and marine heatwaves capable of triggering widespread coral bleaching.
Similar impacts were observed during the record heat years of 2010, 2023 and 2024. Areas already experiencing drought, particularly in the Eastern Caribbean, may face slower replenishment of water resources during the peak of the Wet Season between September and November this year.
While El Niño is typically associated with less active Atlantic hurricane seasons, Dr Van Meerbeeck warned that communities should not become complacent.
Although the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season has remained relatively quiet, aside from a handful of weak storms, he stressed that a single major hurricane or severe rainfall event could still result in significant loss and damage.
He cited Tropical Storm Erika in 2015, which caused devastating flooding and landslides in Dominica despite not making direct landfall on the island.
According to CIMH, forecasts indicate a broad area of below-normal rainfall extending from the Guianas through the Lesser and Greater Antilles by October. At the same time, the number of days experiencing hot spells is expected to increase significantly.
The combination of reduced rainfall and higher evaporation rates is likely to lead to drought conditions across much of the Windward and Leeward islands, the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao, parts of Jamaica and Hispaniola, and sections of The Bahamas.
These conditions are expected to persist into early 2027, increasing the likelihood of water shortages and wildfire activity.
"The risks signalled by the science earlier this year are now beginning to materialise," said Professor Michael Taylor, co-director of UWI CSGM.
"We are seeing an emerging climate disaster whose impacts combine heat, drought and marine extremes. Unlike a hurricane, the impacts will continue to build over months. However, that should not lessen the urgency or scale of our preparations."
Taylor warned that the region must treat the unfolding crisis with the same seriousness it applies to other major climate threats.
The agencies said the prolonged dry and hot conditions could have far-reaching consequences for agriculture, public health, energy systems, tourism and trade. Subsistence farmers, particularly those reliant on rain-fed agriculture in countries such as Belize and Jamaica, could face significant losses.
Health concerns include heat-related illnesses, reduced water quality and increased risks from vector-borne diseases. Energy and water systems could also come under strain as demand for cooling rises.
The tourism sector may be affected as visitors and workers face prolonged heat exposure and greater demand for freshwater resources.
Officials also warned that El Niño-related disruptions to global supply chains could affect imports, increase food prices and raise living costs across the Caribbean. Recent drought conditions affecting operations at the Panama Canal illustrate the potential risks to regional trade and logistics.
Dr Van Meerbeeck encouraged the public and policymakers to monitor monthly updates from the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), which provide guidance on rainfall, drought and heat conditions.
CIMH Principal Dr David Farrell emphasised the importance of timely climate information and proactive planning, noting that strengthening early warning systems remains essential to improving regional preparedness and resilience.
Farrell said the institute has expanded its focus on water resources, marine systems, earth observation and climate services, while continuing research into the socioeconomic impacts of climate-related hazards such as El Niño.
He stressed that enhancing access to clear, actionable information will remain critical as Caribbean countries confront increasing climate variability and the growing impacts of climate change.
