Senior Reporter
geisha.kowlessar@guardian.co.tt
Political scientists believe the renaming of five constituencies as recently outlined in the 2024 report by the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) may not have any significant impact.
However, they believe the EBC’s recommendation regarding the alteration of the boundaries of 16 constituencies, including transfers of polling divisions to optimise representation would require “further investigation.”
Prof Hamid Ghany, Professor of Constitutional Affairs and Parliamentary Studies, at UWI, said the report does not make any significant changes that would disturb what appear to be existing trends based on voting behaviour in the 2020 general election.
He explained that in the absence of the official publication of the results of the 2023 local government elections, one cannot map these polling division changes against those results.
However, Ghany commented on specific boundary alterations using 2020 data.
He said the movement of polling division (PD) 2100 in Valencia from Toco/Sangre Grande to Arima removes a favourable PNM polling division out of Toco/Sangre Grande and places it in the PNM stronghold of Arima.
This, he added, strengthens Arima for the PNM and keeps Toco/Sangre Grande as a PNM-leaning marginal seat on a slightly weaker basis.
Also, Ghany said the movement of PD 3081 at the Milton Presbyterian School from Caroni Central to Tabaquite keeps both Caroni Central and Tabaquite as UNC strongholds.
Regarding the movement of PD 3206 at the Springvale Hindu Primary School from Tabaquite to the newly-named Claxton Bay constituency (formerly Pointe-a-Pierre), this strengthens Claxton Bay as a UNC-leaning marginal and leaves Tabaquite as a UNC stronghold.
Ghany further noted that the movement of PD 2390 at the Tamana RC Primary School from Cumuto/Manzanilla to La Horquetta/Talparo will have minimal effect on La Horquetta/Talparo as a PNM-leaning marginal and leaves Cumuto/Manzanilla as a UNC stronghold.
As it relates to the movement of PDs 1190, 1210 and 1310 from Laventille East-Morvant to Laventille West, Ghany said this moves three PNM strong polling divisions between two PNM strongholds.
Also, he said the movement of PD 0700 from Laventille West to Port-of-Spain South moves a PNM strong polling division between two PNM strongholds.
Looking at the movement of PD 1806 in D’Abadie from the newly-named Malabar/Mausica constituency (formerly D’Abadie/O’Meara) to the newly-named constituency of Trincity/Maloney (formerly Arouca/Maloney) moves a strong PNM polling division between two PNM strongholds.
Ghany also examined the movement of PD 3871 and PD 3874—both in Duncan Village—from Oropouche East to San Fernando East. He said it was moving two strong UNC polling divisions from the UNC stronghold of Oropouche East into the PNM stronghold of San Fernando East. This, he said, does not disturb the stronghold status of either constituency.
Regarding PD 4005 and PD 4006, both in Vistabella, which moves one PNM-leaning polling division (4005) and one UNC-leaning polling division (4006) from the PNM stronghold of San Fernando East into the PNM-leaning marginal of San Fernando West, Ghany said it makes the gap narrower between the PNM and the UNC in San Fernando West.
Meanwhile, political scientist Dr Bishnu Ragoonath agreed the renaming of constituencies, based on location, would not create any challenges.
Regarding the alteration of the boundaries of 16 constituencies, Ragoonath recommended there needs to be further analysis regarding the impact of such changes.
Political analyst Dr Indira Rampersad on the other hand said there are questions which must be answered.
“Why? Where these names come from? Were they pulled out of a hat? The shifting of polling divisions I think there can be repercussions. I haven’t studied it so I can’t be sure but the problem with that requires a simple majority and that is a bit dangerous,’ she said.
Rampersad suggested that anything that deals with interference of the boundaries should require a special majority in the Parliament.