These results are from a survey of six marginal constituencies.
These constituencies are Barataria/ San Juan, Tunapuna, St Joseph, Mayaro, Princes Town South/Tableland and San Fernando West. The survey was conducted during the period May 14 to 17, 2010. A total sample of 1,233 respondents across the six constituencies was randomly selected across polling divisions in each constituency.
The survey comprised of persons 18 years and over. The composition of respondents of the entire sample was 37 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 40 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 22 per cent Mixed person and one per cent Others. The sample consisted of 54 per cent males. Face to face interviews were conducted. The margin of error is plus or minus four per cent. This poll was supervised by Dr Derek Chadee, Manager, ANSA McAL Psychological Research Centre and Senior Lecturer, Department of Behavioural Sciences, University of the West Indies, St Augustine.
San Fernando West
How would you rate the PNM candidate (Junia Regrello) in your constituency San Fernando West?�
Excellent–16%
Good–34%
Fair–26%
Poor–15%
Extremely poor–10%
Analysing responses by ethnicity showed that Afro-Trinidadians (65 per cent) and Mixed (57 per cent) people were more likely than Indo-Trinidadians (35 per cent) to rate Junia Regrello as a "good" candidate for the constituency of San Fernando West. For the rating "fair," 27 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 27 per cent Indo-Trinidadians and 19 per cent Mixed persons gave that response. Afro-Trinidadians were the least likely to rate Junia Regrello as "poor." Precisely, 38 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 23 per cent Mixed and nine per cent Afro-Trinidadians gave the rating "poor." �
How would you rate the COP candidate (Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan) in your constituency San Fernando West?�
Excellent–9%
Good–25%
Fair–30%
Poor–16%
Extremely poor–13%
Don't know–7%
Marginal differences were noted between males and females in their rating for Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan in the constituency of San Fernando West. For the rating "good" 38 per cent males and 44 per cent females gave that response. The response "fair" was given by 33 per cent of males and females respectively. The rating "poor" was stated by 33 per cent females and 29 per cent males. �
Comparing the ratings for both candidates, Junia Regrello had a 16 per cent point lead over Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan in positive ratings. �
Whom would you support for Prime Minister?�
Kamla Persad-Bissessar–39%
Patrick Manning–38%
Keith Rowley–9%
Jack Warner–2%
Winston Dookeran–1%
Undecided/None–11%
With regards to education, of the respondents who indicated they would support "Kamla Persad-Bissessar" for Prime Minister 38 per cent were secondary, 29 per cent university, 17 per cent primary, 17 per cent technical/vocational educated people. Of the persons who indicated "Patrick Manning" 49 per cent were secondary, 22 per cent university, 19 per cent primary and ten per cent technical/vocational educated people.�For the response, "Keith Rowley" 50 per cent were university, 44 per cent secondary, six per cent technical/vocational and zero per cent primary. �
� �
Which political party will you vote for on May 24th?
PNM–41%
UNC Coalition–36%
NNV–1%
Don't know–17%
None–4%
No response–2%
Examining responses by ethnicity (that is, for each ethnic group assessing their party preference), there was a 52 per cent difference between Afro-Trinidadians and Indo-Trinidadians stating "PNM" as their preferred party choice. Specifically, 69 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 45 per cent Mixed and 17 per cent Indo-Trinidadians said "PNM." The majority of persons stating "UNC Coalition" were Indo-Trinidadians. Specifically, 63 per cent of Indo-Trinidadians, 28 per cent Mixed and 9% Afro-Trinidadians persons stated "UNC Coalition."
�
Which political party do you think would win the upcoming general elections?�
PNM–41%
UNC Coalition–36%
Don't know–23%
In examining ethnicity, Afro-Trinidadians (65per cent ) were much more likely than Mixed (47per cent ) and Indo-Trinidadians (17per cent ) to state "PNM." The majority of Indo-Trinidadians stated "UNC Coalition." Specifically, 57 per cent of Indo-Trinidadians, 36 per cent Mixed and 12 per cent Afro-Trinidadians gave this response.��� �
ST JOSEPH
How would you rate the PNM candidate (Kennedy Swaratsingh) in your constituency St Joseph?�
Excellent–9%
Good–27%
Fair–28%
Poor–24%
Extremely poor–11%
Don't know–1%
In response to this question, 36 per cent of respondents rated Kennedy Swaratsingh as a "good" while 35 per cent rated him as a "poor" candidate for the St Joseph constituency. Specifically, nine per cent stated "excellent," 27 per cent "good," 28 per cent "fair" 24 per cent "poor" 11 per cent "extremely poor" and one per cent "don't know." �
How would you rate the UNC candidate (Herbert Volney) in your constituency St Joseph?�
Excellent–6%
Good–18%
Fair–25%
Poor–18%
Extremely poor–9%
Don't know–23%
Analysing responses by ethnicity, Afro-Trinidadians were the least likely to rate Herbert Volney as "good" as 35 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 25 per cent Mixed and 11 per cent Afro-Trinidadians gave that response. Indo-Trinidadians (31per cent ) were observed to be most likely to give the response "fair" followed by Mixed (23per cent ) and Afro-Trinidadians (22per cent).�Approximately half of Afro-Trinidadians rated Herbert Volney as "poor." Precisely, 48 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 23 per cent Mixed and 15 per cent Indo-Trinidadians gave the rating "poor." The response "don't know" was stated by 29per cent Mixed, 20 per cent Afro-Trinidadians and 19 per cent Indo-Trinidadian respondents. �
Comparing the ratings for both candidates, Kennedy Swaratsingh had a 12 per cent point lead over Herbert Volney in positive ratings. �
Whom would you support for Prime Minister?
Kamla Persad-Bissessar–42%
Patrick Manning–31%
Keith Rowley–13%
Winston Dookeran–2%
Jack Warner–1%
Undecided/None–11% �
Exploring responses by education revealed that of the respondents who indicated they would support "Kamla Persad-Bissessar" for Prime Minister 61 per cent were secondary, 16 per cent primary, 16 per cent university, eight per cent technical/vocational educated persons. Of the persons who indicated "Patrick Manning" 52 per cent were secondary, 22 per cent primary, 14 per cent university and 11 per cent technical/vocational educated persons.� �
�
Which political party will you vote for on May 24th?
PNM–36%
UNC Coalition–39%
Don't know–16%
None–5%
No response–4%
The race is very close between the "UNC Coalition"and the "PNM."
Examining responses by ethnicity (that is, for each ethnic group assessing their party preference) showed a 33 per cent difference between Indo-Trinidadians and Afro-Trinidadians stating "UNC Coalition" as their preferred party choice. Specifically, 52 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 45 per cent Mixed and 19 per cent Afro-Trinidadians said "UNC Coalition". Afro-Trinidadians (62 per cent ) were most likely to state "PNM" than both Mixed (37per cent) people and Indo-Trinidadians (15per cent ). �
Which political party do you think would win the upcoming general elections?�
PNM–32%
UNC Coalition–45%
Don't know–23%
In assessing ethnicity, Mixed persons were more likely to state "UNC Coalition"�would win the upcoming general elections. Specifically, 54 per cent of Mixed, 53 per cent Indo-Trinidadians and 26 per cent Afro-Trinidadians stated "UNC Coalition." Afro-Trinidadians (51per cent) were more likely to state "PNM," than Mixed (31 per cent) and Indo-Trinidadians (19 per cent). �
Examining ethnicity in another view by breakdown of party victory, for the "PNM", 48 per cent were Afro-Trinidadians, 30 per cent Mixed and 22 per cent Indo-Trinidadians. Of those responding "UNC Coalition," 45 per cent were Indo-Trinidadians, 38% Mixed persons and 18 per cent Afro-Trinidadians. �
Between the sexes, a notable difference was observed for those responding "UNC Coalition"�would obtain party victory in the upcoming general elections. Of those responding "UNC Coalition," 65 per cent were males and 35 per cent females. Of those responding "PNM," 61 per cent were males and 39 per cent females.
