Nuclear weapons represent a threat to humanity so grave that any discussion of their use by any nation immediately evokes references to the religious concept of Armageddon. The word Armageddon is Hebrew in origin and refers to the Valley of Megiddo in Israel, which was also the location of the earliest battle in recorded history between Pharaoh Thutmose III in 1457BC.
Since the Manhattan Project and the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the United States in 1945, nuclear weapons have proliferated around the world with France, Russia, China, India and Pakistan among others.
The recent conflict in the Middle East between the US and Israel had at its core the issue of Iran’s enrichment of uranium to levels that would allow for the creation of nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that Iran enriched 440kg of uranium to 60 per cent, which is close to the 90 per cent needed for nuclear weapons. It is estimated that this amount of uranium is sufficient for ten to 12 nuclear weapons.
Israel, on the other hand, is known to have an arsenal of over 90 to 150 nuclear weapons based on plutonium. Plutonium-based weapons have major advantages over uranium designs, as a sphere of ten to 15kg of plutonium can be made into a weapon, as opposed to a larger amount of 50 to 52kg of uranium.
This means that Israel’s nuclear weapons arsenal can easily fit on the top of missiles or even be miniaturised to the level of a “suitcase” nuke that weighs less than 70 pounds and can be carried by one soldier.
Israel’s nuclear weapons arsenal can be defined as a “public secret”. While not officially acknowledged by the Israeli government, they have never denied nuclear capability. Former Israeli nuclear technician Mordechai Vanunu revealed evidence of Israel’s nuclear programme to the British press in 1986 and was kidnapped by Mossad and taken to Israel for trial.
In the 2008 book Culture of War, Professor Van Creveld wrote that any talk of Israel’s nuclear weapons on Israeli soil can lead to arrest, trial and imprisonment; however, news commentators are allowed to use euphemisms such as “the Samson option.”
Since the 1950s, Israel has maintained a nuclear research reactor 13 kilometres away from the town of Dimona, near the Negev desert, known as the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Centre.
This reactor was built with French assistance. My research also revealed a surprising twist: West Germany secretly funded a significant portion of this Israeli reactor, perhaps as reparations for the atrocities of the Nazis. Norway provided the heavy water (Deuterium) needed for neutron moderation in the reactor.
Millions of dollars to build the nuclear reactor were also donated by private citizens and companies from around the world. This level of support allowed Israel to achieve its first nuclear weapon around 1967.
A secret joint nuclear test with South Africa is believed to have been conducted in 1979, the “ Vela Incident.” Detected by a US Vela Hotel satellite, a double flash consistent with a nuclear explosion of around three kilotons occurred in the Indian Ocean south of South Africa’s territorial waters.
Israel’s official policy is “nuclear opacity,” meaning it has never officially disclosed its status as a nuclear power or its strategic nuclear doctrine; however, its refusal to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty gives it a legal pretext to develop these weapons.
Israel is rumoured to have a complete “nuclear triad” of launch systems, including missiles, submarines and aircraft, similar to much larger countries like the US, India and China.
Historically, Israel has suppressed any attempts by another nation in the Middle East to own a weapon.
In 1981, Israel bombed a French-made nuclear reactor in Iraq, known as “Operation Opera.” Syria’s nuclear reactor was bombed in 2007 by Israel in “Operation Outside the Box.”
Learning from Israel’s past, Iran built one Russian-made nuclear reactor, Bushehr-1, and built extensive underground enrichment facilities at Fordow, which no Israeli weapon could damage.
While Israel’s arsenal is small compared to the hundreds possessed by China and the thousands held by Russia and the US, it is still large enough to pose an existential threat to the entire world if used.
Academics Robock and Toon published the article “Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war” in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, in which they estimated that a small nuclear exchange involving 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons used on cities would kill tens of millions from immediate blast effects but the soot created would impact the global climate with ash blocking out the sun and cause famine worldwide for over one billion people.
If Israel and Iran ever did engage in a hypothetical nuclear war, with ten being launched by Iran and 90 by Israel, the entire world would feel its impact. Thankfully, the recent ceasefire has opened the possibility of a peaceful resolution.
While Israel, like any nation, has the right to self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter, there is always the risk that this “Samson option” will be used in a first strike that is deemed necessary under the justification of self-defence.
