Before making decisions politicians generally assess the political consequences, moreso the electoral consequences of their actions. With respect to the closure of the Petrotrin refinery, no doubt Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley and his inner circle would have made some calculations about the electoral implications of the decision.
It is presumed that, in order to put the decision in a positive light among the general population, majority public opinion had to be mobilised on the Government’s side. Therefore, the manner in which the issue was presented to the public, that is, the public relations aspect, was of critical importance. The strategy entailed a full-scale domination in the media of the narrative as promoted by the Government and short shrift to opposing viewpoints.
The strategy comprised many elements. One was that the company’s financial situation was so dire that it was irretrievable and could not be allowed to continue. If not immediately addressed, it would bankrupt the Government and spell disaster for the economy. The only option was closure to put a brake on losses and protect the Treasury. As regards disastrous consequences for the economy, a similar scenario was presented when Lawrence Duprey and CL Financial approached the Government for bailout funds in 2009. In that case, the People’s National Movement government initially provided $5 billion in advances from the Treasury to keep the conglomerate afloat because it was deemed too big to fail. In the present case, the Government seeks to protect the economy, not by advancing money but by cutting its losses.
Another element of the strategy was to lay almost full blame for Petrotrin’s financial demise on the workers at the refinery. It was said that it operated with a bloated workforce being paid astronomical salaries and wages and engaged in self-serving corruption and inefficiencies. In a selective use of wage statistics, Minister of Energy Franklin Khan would announce at a PNM meeting on September 6 that a carpenter received $70,000 in overtime for one month and that “Petrotrin workers were by and large responsible for their own demise.” It struck an emotive chord with the general public although few questioned whether workers determined their own wages and overtime without approval or oversight of departmental managers, executive personnel, the president of the company and the board. Yet, despite the knowledge of extravagant salaries and wages, the Rowley administration would approve a six per cent increase in pay for Petrotrin workers in 2016.
The strategy also included a distancing of the current Rowley-led PNM administration from either prior knowledge or responsibility for the allegedly disastrous performance of Petrotrin and its huge indebtedness. It was always previous administrations at fault, particularly the People’s Partnership administration of 2010-2015. However, it will be well to recall that both Rowley and Imbert were part of the Cabinet in 2009 when Petrotrin secured a loan of US$850 million which required a bullet repayment in 2019. It should have been obvious to the then government that the transaction created a large contingent liability on it.
Another element was to present PM Rowley in a most favourable light for taking the decision to close the refinery. He was to be portrayed as a man of courage, sterling resolve and patriotic virtue who cared not for himself but for the future of the country and was willing to sacrifice his political career, if necessary, in that pursuit.
In the main, it appears that the strategy was successful in galvanizing majority public opinion in favour of the decision for closure. Electorally, therefore, a hurdle seemed to have been surmounted.
With respect to opposition to the decision from within the PNM itself, it is more than likely it would have come from supporters of former prime minister Patrick Manning but they are in a distinct minority. In any event, it was presumed that loyalty to party at elections would surmount any internal disagreement.
Consideration would have been given to the extent of opposition from some unions and their workers. However, it is known that unionised workers constitute a modest percentage of the total workforce. Full working class solidarity in this country is presumed to be difficult to achieve, especially in support of an alleged elite group of the working class earning phenomenal wages. The fallout from this quarter would not have been perceived to be electorally significant by the PNM leadership. In geographical terms, the refinery closure is seen as a southern issue which is not likely to affect political sentiment in the North or in the East-West corridor. The adjacent constituencies of Pointe-a-Pierre, Tabaquite and Couva South are not held by the PNM and are not likely to be won by it. The margin of victory in San Fernando East is substantial and hardly likely to be eroded. San Fernando West could be consolidated by expenditure on a slew of projects.