This space has been used before to draw attention to the longstanding international campaign, led by the International Labour Organization (ILO), to promote more effective use of a process of “social dialogue” as a mechanism for peaceful and prosperous economic development.
Yesterday’s ILO release of the labour market impact of COVID-19 painted a rather grim picture of it all while stressing the value of multi-party dialogue and adherence to labour rights in charting a way forward.
Such injunctions ought to be more strongly and critically considered by all stakeholders. This is particularly so in the face of colossal challenges that show little sign of going away anytime soon.
The textbook application of tripartism involving the state, labour and employers has however been found wanting both in terms of its practical application and in its design as a mechanism to move countries forward.
This is a point I have stressed in this space more than once. Our reality is that none of the three main social actors, as classically prescribed—save perhaps for the (problematic) state—matches tidily with Caribbean socio-economic reality.
For example, the state as a major direct and indirect employer in T&T has not coped well with the required institutional schizophrenia to enter such dialogue as an honest broker.
There is also the relatively low level of trade union representation in the labour force (about 25 per cent). This leads to a serious anomaly in the trade union movement’s functions as the sole discussant from such a perspective at the table.
Then there is the question of who in fact lays claim to legitimate representation of “employers” within the context of a persistent and pervasive (and quite resilient in some instances) informal economy.
None of this, though, is an attempt to diminish the value of social dialogue as a mechanism to achieve peace and progress. Collective bargaining, where applicable, should prevail and be expanded. There is also an indisputable role for the state in our economies. And there ought to be coherence in the application of labour rights among all employers.
But what COVID-19 has done is to accentuate the systemic imbalances that have long rendered social dialogue a problematic imperative.
According to the ILO, the Americas (the Caribbean included) have suffered an 18.3 per cent loss of working hours. I am certain all concerned in T&T would argue that the percentage loss here has been much more than that.
Meanwhile the ILO Monitor’s “baseline model” for the future assumes “a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment.” Even so, a 4.9 per cent reduction in pre-COVID working hours is forecast.
The “pessimistic scenario” assumes a second wave and the return of restrictions. This would mean a fall in working hours of up to 11.9 per cent.
Then there is an “optimistic scenario” which assumes that life can be expected to return to relative normalcy at the end of the current period and that the global loss would be in the order of 1.2 per cent.
In my view none of this takes into account our reality on the ground, the changing frontiers of business, finance and economics, and a new world of work not easily measurable in units of “working hours”.
One missing link, I believe, is the impact of technological governance. This feature of the world of work and economic activity has come to the fore in accelerated ways over the past three months.
Those of us concerned with media development, for instance, have paid greater and greater attention to the role of the technology players as active participants (for good and bad) in the process of social mobilisation, dialogue and change.
I think, at the end of all of this, there will be a need to go back to the drawing-board to re-formulate approaches to repairing and maintaining the lanes of production and enterprise to take us into the future. The prevailing template will increasingly not apply. The table needs expanding.
It is difficult to envisage a tidy fit between the old remedies and what is currently before us. It has long promised to come to this and the months to come will show if we’re truly in this together.