All future Iranian regimes are at risk of collapse, not just because of US sanctions and President Trump’s possible bombing, but because of failed agricultural and water management policies. This column will extract lessons from Iran to apply to T&T, which has also failed to use its oil revenue to become self-sufficient in food production.
In a 2019 article, David Michel, writing for the Atlantic Council, summarised Iran’s history of attempting to become self-sufficient in food production and overusing its water resources as a result. Subsidised water rates created no incentive for farmers to use more economical irrigation techniques, resulting in overuse of water resources.
“With little incentive to economise, the agricultural sector claims 92 per cent of the country’s water withdrawals, compared to a global average of 70 per cent. Farm water use is highly wasteful. Thus, buoyed by subsidies and price supports, wheat cultivation—and the consequent water demands—has spread to cover three-fifths of Iran’s arable land, extending through every one of its provinces, without regard for their diverse climatic and agro-ecologic conditions. Irrigation efficiencies hover around 33 per cent, with some provinces as low as 15 per cent, far beneath global standards. Iranian farmers often apply two to three times more water per hectare of corn, rice, and wheat than the world average.
“Such relentless demands are progressively depleting Iran’s renewable freshwater sources. Measured as a ratio of water withdrawals to available supplies, three of the world’s top seven most water-stressed river basins—Qom, Harirud, and Helmand—lie in Iran. Groundwater levels, too, are plummeting nationwide. At current rates of exploitation, twelve of Iran’s thirty-one provinces will entirely exhaust their aquifers within the next 50 years.”
Michal recommended water subsidy reform and solar desalination systems to help alleviate the water crisis.
Poor agricultural policy over the past few decades then caused excessive water consumption that resulted in headlines like this published by NBC in 2025: “Iran water crisis: Taps run dry as Tehran evacuation looms.”
Food prices in Iran increase annually due to a mixture of currency devaluation due to US sanctions and the water crisis impacting agriculture. This creates stress on the population and results in malnutrition amongst the poorest citizens.
High food prices are the same catalyst that started the 2011 Arab Spring revolutions in Egypt, Syria and Morocco. The parallels with modern Iran are striking, and it is no wonder that anti-government protests have taken over the streets of Iran.
Regardless of whether regime change takes place in Iran, the reality of shrinking aquifers and rising temperatures due to climate change will result in lower food production and water scarcity. Water scarcity then leads to social unrest as the basic needs of civilians cannot be met.
Unless major investments are made in desalination projects, 12 of Iran’s 31 provinces will exhaust their aquifers in 50 years around 2070. This will cause starvation and mass migration and could plant the seeds of social unrest.
Food security and water management are critical aspects of national security policy in our modern world. Thankfully, T&T has never faced a complete collapse of its water resources, and our oil revenues have allowed for food imports historically. However, the possibility of major international conflict and climate change still looms.
Parts of T&T still do not get an adequate supply of running water, and any major agricultural expansion will require investment in water resources. Global food prices will continue to rise due to stress on freshwater reserves.
In an article for University College London, Dr Carole Dalin stated, “Unlike rivers, aquifers form over hundreds of years, and with climate change increasing the risk of drought in many parts of the world and global demand for “thirsty crops” like wheat, rice, maize and soya soaring, farmers are starting to have to depend on groundwater supplies. Some 40 per cent of all irrigation now comes from underground aquifers.”
This global dependence on underground aquifers creates a long-term risk for global food security. Inevitably, many areas around the world will face water scarcity, like Iran, driving up food prices.
Both cocoa and coffee have reached record highs, with cocoa peaking at US$12,000 per tonne in December 2024 and Arabica coffee hitting US$9,000 per tonne in 2025. These highs are due to increased temperatures and droughts in Africa, Vietnam & Brazil.
Agriculture should be prioritised as a cornerstone of T&T’s economic diversification. Cash crops for export, such as cocoa & coffee, could be grown in the mountainous regions of the northern range. The flatter lands of central and south Trinidad can be used for a mix of sugarcane, cassava, corn and other staples.
As the news about the crisis in Iran unfolds, it must be remembered that the possible collapse of the Iranian government could have been avoided if better policies had been put in place decades ago. Hungry and thirsty protesters have taken to the streets in Iran, and their protests may soon invite US and Israeli military intervention.
