Winn Lily could well spring a surprise in the four-runner Maiden Stakes over five furlongs of Southwell fibresand today; portents for this being third time lucky are obvious.
Three weeks ago Winn Lily was third to unchallenged Tommy Docc over course and distance, half a length behind runner-up, Thunderbird; the former carries 7lbs more today.
David Parkes rode Thunderbird and claimed full apprentice allowance but this time chamion-jockey elect, Luke Morris, has been booked whereas Jacob Butterfield retains the ride on Winn Lily. His current claim is 3lbs.
Obviously Morris is a better proposition but given this is just a straightforward dash, and every pound 'weighs heavily' on the unique 'deep stuff', Winn Lily will surely reverse placings; what about forecast odds-on favourite, Makin A Statement?
This 72-rated David O'Meara-trained Bahamian Bounty gelding was withdrawn last week on the eve of a first appearance for 164 days when beaten at Cattterick by 12 lengths!
Winn Lily is fit, fancied and worth chancing; betting is all about relating chance to price and this should be interesting.
Incidentally most of my selections are placed and the long-term secret of taking advantage is following up next time out.
Sleet is one of eight 'decs' for the 'aged' handicap over seven furlongs, sixteenth time lucky?
Judged on yet another genuine effort in a similar race on Wolverhampton Tapeta last week should prevail and I'll bet he does under Andrew Mullen, now back to his best having undergone hip surgery which laid him low for several months.
Consistency usually brings reward but in the case of Sleet, and plenty like him, it can compromise opportunity because handicappers are loathe drop 'key' horses.
On the time-handicap however Sleet, one I'd love to own, personally, is 'best-in' and worth backing to recoup so many losses for beleaguered punters.
Sellingallthetime, partnered by 5lbs apprentice, Alistair Rawlinson, must not be opposed in the opening 'aged' handicap over 11 furlongs.
Selections
2.20 Sellingallthetime
2.55 Winn Lily
4.30 Sleet (nap)