The 2020 Classic season is drawing to end with two legs of the Triple Crown series remaining – the Midsummer Classic on October 31 and the Derby on November 28. Final subscriptions for the former and first subscriptions for the latter took place last week with 11 and 21 horses paying subscriptions respectively.
Worryingly, first subscriptions for the Stewards Cup also took place last week with only six horses paying subscription fees. Of these six horses, four are trained by John O’Brien – last year’s Stewards Cup winner, Early Bird, Making Headlines, General JN and Thisonesforron – with Juice Man and the once raced Pleasantly Big making up the sextet.
It is perhaps, a sign of the time, or maybe a mistake that none of the potential runners is from the Shivam Maharaj stable, notably Affirmative, Nuclear Power or Master of War. Six nominees for a race once dubbed the Sprint Championship of the Caribbean really tells a sad story about the current state of the local horse racing industry.
Having been involved in the sport for several years, it is difficult to remember a comparative period of time to now. Confidence that the sport can survive this current period cannot be high since the downturn in its fortunes began long before the onset of COVID19.
Many may be of the view that we are currently in the zombie stage of the sport, wherein the sport is dead in this country but is being kept unnaturally alive.
Those playing the role of Frankenstein in this analogy would really be the owners who continue to support the sport through the maintenance of their animals. These owners were not being paid prior to COVID-19 and that position has not changed since the sport’s resumption. How much longer Frankenstein’s monster can be kept alive is anyone’s guess.
In the meantime, there is the small matter of the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Midsummer Classic. As mentioned earlier, 11 horses have paid their final subscription and it is to be hoped that they all line up for the event on the day. The 11 nominees are the first four home in the Guineas – Wise Guy, Bella Riva, Goldon D’Or, and Princess Steffani; Guineas’ also-rans CP Jet, Spring Valley and Nuclear Fire; and four horses that did not take part in the Guineas, Airforce Won, Apache, Smooth Sailing and Star Apostle.
Except for Goldon D’Or, it is difficult to make an argument as to why any of the other beaten horses in the Guineas should reverse placings with the winner, Wise Guy. This gelded son of J’Ouvert was much the best on the day and only seemed to be getting stronger, the further they went.
In an interview after the event, the owner of the beaten favourite, the hitherto unbeaten Bella Riva, suggested that the filly may have had a physical issue on the day of the event and that may offer some glimmer of hope to her fans but, in all of her prior races, she had not raced as though stepping up in distance was what she was crying out for. She is probably beatable again.
The one exception from the field with a legitimate excuse was the slow- starting Goldon D’Or. This Jamaican-bred colt had developed that bad habit in his prior starts and while his Guineas start was not as bad as some of his previous starts, he still forfeited too much ground at the start, though not necessarily as much as he was beaten by. That being said, there is little doubt that with an even start, he would have, at least, been a lot closer to the winner at the line. If his wily trainer can sort out this issue, he could be more dangerous in the Midsummer Classic.
Of the four newcomers, Airforce Won missed the Guineas on the day due to a late complication but was previously the winner of the St James Stakes as a two-year-old defeating Wise Guy. He has not reproduced that form since but could be anything if he is sound.
Apache has failed to build on a winning debut in three subsequently disappointing starts and it would be an act of faith to expect him to suddenly turn things around. Smooth Sailing has been a revelation since changing stables, winning three of his last four starts but not against this level of competition. He is improving steadily, however, and so could be interesting. Star Apostle is bred to be a sprinter and is yet to give any indication that a distance of ground would result in a step up in its overall level of form.
On balance, there is a very good chance that Wise Guy will continue his path towards the Triple Crown and looking at the initial nominees for that race, the only intriguing contender is the unbeaten Mayaluga. The performance of this daughter of Market Rally in her next start, and hopefully over a distance of ground, should tell us more since she had been staying on strongly at the end of her races thus far.
The main challengers to Wise Guy in the Midsummer Classic should come from his stable companion, Bella Riva and the Chadee pair of Goldon D’Or and Airforce Won. These four generate sufficient interest in the race, which hopefully would then engender good cheer in a racing public crying out for positive feelings.