?Will the downgrading of Basdeo Panday and his replacement as Leader of the Opposition by Kamla Persad-Bissessar change the dynamics of T&T politics and lead eventually to her becoming Prime Minister? The extent of her victory sent Panday into possible retirement and she has now turned her sights to the next campaign, the removal from office of Prime Minister Patrick Manning. In her quest to satisfy that ambition, however, she should be aware that the two targets are not the same. The battle with Panday was confined to a domestic party affair. One reason for his defeat may have been the belief that the party's future depended on its ability to become the government and the negative political baggage he carried made that an almost impossible goal. It is not that the party loved Persad-Bissessar more and Panday less, it was simply that in spite of UNC belief that the PNM was at its most vulnerable, Panday as a future candidate for Prime Minister appeared even worse.
It was also obvious to almost everyone in the party that Ramesh Maharaj, because of his past history within the UNC, was not an option, therefore a first woman candidate for Prime Minister may be a political plus. This was fundamentally a ready-made situation. The next election is a long way off and Ms Persad-Bissessar must be very careful that she does not as a result underestimate any challenge to the PNM. Notwithstanding the prescient calculations of the country's self-proclaimed political scientists that Mr Manning's days are numbered and his situation today, because of unfavourable public perceptions, may be quite different than in the past, Mr Manning's political career has always been dogged by consistent unrelenting public controversy over the years that he has been Prime Minister but he is still there. Therefore, judging from his normal style of governing he will more than likely respond with the distinct advantage of incumbency, longer experience, close familiarity with the country's tribal political history and as a 24-hour-a-day political infighter with a party which still fully supports him and knows how to bring out the vote in constituencies that matter on Election Day.
His attitude at present appears to be that notwithstanding a highly disappointed population, there is absolutely no done deal and he takes on in a very vociferous manner all those who he believes wish to pick a fight with him. Strange as it may seem, absolutely nothing disconcerts him from continuing to pursue his heavily criticised agenda. In this respect he should be reminded of the story of the dead cat on the porch. If it is not removed quickly the smell continues to get worse. Ms Persad-Bissessar's hope–and in politics hope springs eternal–may be that the PNM, whose support she believes has deteriorated since the last election, can be split and dislodged if attacked directly on issues relating to crime, inefficiency in government operations and, most of all, corruption. On the issue of corruption, even though they paid a price with the loss of an election, the UNC will not be able to present the population with an untainted history. Therefore such attacks may not be useful unless Ms Persad-Bissessar can also make a strong case based on credible alternatives.
The citizens of T&T have had to live with the spectre of government corruption since independence. Williams, who called his colleagues millstones, like every other Prime Minister including Panday after him, operated regularly outside the scope of Cabinet decision-making. Each one has bypassed and ignored the Cabinet and used an unelected man of business who eventually got them into serious trouble. Mr Manning has apparently taken in front and has already attacked the question of integrity and image by making certain blunt assertions about Ms Persad-Bissessar in Parliament. He and his ministers, on the other hand, need to answer a host of questions regarding general efficiency in government. Ms Persad-Bissessar's first challenge is obviously not the PNM. It is how to significantly and cohesively merge the various elements in and out of Parliament opposed to the PNM. This is no simple matter and her political capability will be fully tested. This was attempted before and subsequently collapsed.
One person who will continue to be a major stumbling block at every opportunity and who does not believe that she has that capability is Mr Panday, who may be waiting quietly to enjoy that failure. What can she offer the COP as an equal partner is the big question. She has now surrounded herself with Panday's ex-associates and they will obviously want to continue to exert influence and personal interests. What about those who actually assisted in her victory? Will they give way to COP ambitions? That party at the top is in fact mostly old ONR, a magnet for the disillusioned forever hoping for a partner with a convenient base. Whether the experiment had failed or not in the past, a constructive and transparent alliance (a merger will be too difficult) between the two could create some serious nightmares for the PNM. With a woman leader and a deal maker like Jack Warner, some kind of accommodation may be possible. However, history is never a liar and has shown that political coalitions are generally unstable.
The road to becoming a prime minister can be described by many words, all meaning the same thing: circuitous, crooked, deviating, divisive, periphrastic, roundabout, tortuous, calculating, evasive, insidious and misleading. Anyone who is willing to become the leader of a country is expected to recognise that leadership is not the same as jumping aboard every ill-advised public protest. You will need to tell the people what exactly you stand for. In particular on issues like a fixed date for elections, term limits and campaign finance reform. While past behaviour of the country's voters can easily be described as incomprehensible, they will have to be convinced that whatever is presented as a choice is a sound, stable and viable entity.