I wouldn’t second-guess scientists who assert that COVID is here to stay and, over time, become endemic. However, less life-threatening as more people are vaccinated. There’s a saying that the “pessimist” is a well-informed optimist. Interpret that as one may wish, but time will only be on our side if the dialogue changes from “planning for life after COVID” to “planning to live with it,” as we do with other deadly diseases. Living with it essentially means mass public vaccinations, and maybe, annually, because of new aggressive strains. The aim must be to preserve life and livelihoods—the latter, yes, if you know what it’s like to stare into the eyes of a malnourished child. Every year some of us take flu shots against new strains so we won’t suffer the worst. The current pandemic wave, which seems to be receding, is not likely to be the last. Trends suggest that variants will cause spikes. Unfortunately, regardless of the Government’s best efforts, many people won’t be vaccinated in the near future, and many of those by choice.
Countries have struggled with second and third waves. So, it’s not cynical to believe that the likes of COVID-19 will continue to terrorise us, and depending on our responses, cause economic distress. But there’s reason to be optimistic about our ability to manage the current and future threats if we have the will to do so. The excellent professionals in the health sector have done a remarkable job over the past 18 months, notwithstanding the difficulties and setbacks in getting vaccines and problems with the initial rollout.
While the non-essential business lockdown is necessary at this time because most of the population is not vaccinated, could the economy withstand more lockdowns if other waves hit? As the current one ebbs and the Government relaxes regulations, we’re likely to experience more spikes. It’s a daunting challenge for the policymakers, who are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t, but we shouldn’t have to go to extreme measures again. Vaccinations and increasing herd immunity should mean that curtailed public gatherings, late-night-to-early-morning curfews, mask-wearing, and robustly enforced health and safety standards in public and workplaces, should be enough to allow the health sector to cope effectively.
The debt to GDP ratio of 82.7 per cent (Central Bank-selected aggregates as of December 2020) was still very good. Economic statistics aside, more business lockdowns would have severe economic and social consequences. How long could the banks and other financial institutions continue to give moratoria on debt? They have fiduciary obligations. Still, the question is, what are the options if their customers can’t fulfil their financial obligations? Every business, homemaker, and social institution knows there’s a 101-balancing framework of income and expenditure sustaining their institutions: declining income and increasing expenditure lead to insolvency and impoverishment. When businesses shut down, even temporarily, they must find capital to reopen.
Nature beckons us to do what humans have always done from the birth of time to survive and thrive. Adapt. Prepare to live with the insidious thing. It’s a time to focus on renewal and growth. The health sector is a critical pillar of economic stability, and it’s essential to strengthen its infrastructure to sustain future shocks. Fortunately, we have escaped natural disasters that would have caused thousands of hospital emergencies. One could happen as you read, so it’s not only a matter of dealing with the COVID pandemic but preparing to manage sudden shocks. The difficulty in obtaining COVID vaccines is a wake-up call for action to mitigate future risks to our health and well-being and shore up regional and international relationships.
The public service and business sectors must embrace hybrid systems of work that facilitate high productivity, business continuity, and profitability. The greatest hindrance to that is the work ethic, culture, and quality of management. Employers must reshape performance management systems to support remote work. Industrial and health and safety regulations would have to be amended.
Frequent dialogue among key stakeholders; Government, business, labour and financial regulators is critical to spurring robust economic activity. We must be honest about the political, business and people culture. We’re in the perfect chokehold of a political culture that creates cultural and economic polarisation.
Do we have a choice other than to adapt and do better?