The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) is forecasting a “volatile and erratic” 2022 Wet Season for Trinidad and Tobago.
Speaking at the TTMS’s fourteenth National Climate Outlook Forum, acting Chief Climatologist Kenneth Kerr said while the country will have a drier start to the 2022 Wet Season, rainfall is expected to pick up over the coming months, particularly by the second half of the Wet Season. This wetter-than-usual second half is expected to cause the 2022 Wet Season to have above-normal rainfall overall.
Most areas across Trinidad and Tobago are expected to receive between 101 percent and 110 percent of the average Wet Season rainfall. Kerr also explained that isolated areas favoring northeastern and west-central Trinidad and eastern Tobago may receive up to 125 percent of the average Wet Season rainfall accumulations.
With wet conditions forecast, the Met Office looked at indicators that may lead to floods, including monthly rainfall exceeding 250 millimeters or heavy rainfall days where rainfall exceeds 25 millimeters within 24 hours. The TTMS forecasts a 15 percent to 40 percent chance for October’s rainfall to exceed 250 millimeters, while August’s chances are higher, between 20 and 50 percent.
The Met Office is also forecasting between 16 to 20 days where rainfall could exceed 25 millimeters within 24 hours, noting the average for any Wet Season is 15. Extremely heavy rainfall is also possible, with a 37 percent chance for above-normal extremely heavy rainfall days where rainfall totals exceed 50 millimeters within 24 hours. The TTMS says the country is likely to receive four to 10 of these days, noting the average is three extremely heavy rainfall days for a typical Wet Season, with two days receiving upwards of 75 millimeters.
Another Active Hurricane Season
While international forecasters are calling for the seventh consecutive above-average Atlantic Hurricane Season, the TTMS looks closely at a region east of our country to see what impacts the Hurricane Season may bring. Storms that form within the area bounded by 5N and 15N latitude, while east of Trinidad and west of Africa, typically have the highest chances of impacting T&T directly or indirectly.
On average, four named storms form in this region, with one becoming a hurricane. For 2021, five named storms formed in this region, with three strengthening into hurricanes. This year, the Met Office is forecasting a 40 percent chance of an above-average season and a 47 percent chance of a near-normal season. Looking at absolute numbers, the Met Office says four named storms are most likely to form east of T&T, within a likely range of two to five named storms. Of these storms, they add that two are most likely to strengthen into hurricanes, with a likely range of two to three.
It only takes one storm to directly impact Trinidad and Tobago for it to be an active one for us. With the flood potential being much higher than normal for 2022 and the knowledge that another active hurricane season is forecast this year, the Met Office is urging citizens to accelerate preparations. They add that disaster preparedness, flood alleviating agencies, and emergency responders must use the slow start to the Wet Season to escalate preparations.
Reporter: Kalain Hosein