Andre Worrell
UWI economist Dr Roger Hosein says if US President-elect Donald Trump goes through with much of his campaign rhetoric, there could be serious implications for T&T and the wider Caribbean region.
"While I do not expect any major shifts in the near term because of the institutional nature of already existing agreements, a change in governance to the soon to be Trump administration could be a major cause of concern for the region if he sticks with some of his campaign messages," Hosein said.
He added that the impact to the region would most directly be felt in the areas of commodities, trade and migration.
"Oil and gas prices have been trending down recently. Trump being a businessman may want to ramp up shale production in the US to shore up its energy independence and insulate it somewhat from the volatility in the international markets. This no doubt would adversely affect our oil and gas exports to the US."
Hosein pointed out that Trump's comments on his protectionist trade leanings, if they were to materialise, would also be a massive blow to the Caribbean.
He explained: "If Trump were to erect any barriers to trade, this could affect exports to the US which represents the major trading partner for many islands in the Caribbean. Trade with the US is the umbilical cord of much economic activity in Caribbean islands."
Hosein added that Trump's stance on migration could have a ripple effect throughout the region given the prevailing economic conditions in many territories and the contribution of the diaspora to the economic welfare of the region.
"The region is already plagued with high and growing levels of unemployment. If there was a mass exodus of illegal immigrants returning to the region, this could add to the unemployment burden that already exists. Additionally, many migrant workers support family members in the region via remittances so if some of his stated positions on immigration were to happen, it would materially impact the lives of those who depend on remittances to sustain and supplement their livelihood."