The findings of an opinion poll conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association to determine voter support in the October 21 local government elections, shows the People's National Movement (PNM) faces a stiff battle from the Independent Liberal party (ILP) in thez Port-of-Spain and Diego Martin corporations. However, divided support in the People's Partnership camp gives the PNM the edge to win both, the poll says.
The ILP has been making in roads in every corporation, it added, although it is too early yet to say whether it can wrest seats from the PNM or the PP.Based on the findings of the poll, the PNM is on track to retain the Port-of-Spain and San Juan/ Laventille corporations and wresting Diego Martin back from the PP. Although the PNM is ahead in PoS and Diego Martin, the ILP could upset the PNM in several seats, the poll said, as the PNM is way short of a majority of support for secured wins.
The poll finds Congress of the People (COP) struggling in last place and unlikely to retain any of the seats it won in 2010 in PoS and Diego Martin.In neighbouring San Juan/Laventille, the UNC and ILP are battling for second place, as the PNM is way out front, but still struggling to get a majority of support.The ILP has been successful in chipping away support from the PP, but is facing a more difficult task in winning over the PNM voting base, the poll noted.
In general, the poll finds the PNM base largely remaining intact with some defections to the ILP, while the PP's base is split with the ILP. The splitting of the PP's votes puts the PNM in a commanding position to wrest seats from the COP and UNC and win by a landslide.
NACTA polled voters in selected corporations to determine voting trends and popular support for the parties. The findings of the poll were obtained from interviews with 450 respondents reflecting the demographics of the population of each corporation. The poll has a five per cent margin of error.
Overall, queried on which party is more likely to win the three corporations, more voters feel the PNM has the edge because of the division of the partnership support. However, a significant chunk feel it will be a close contest between PNM and ILP with PP not having any chance.In terms of actual support in Port-of-Spain, the PNM leads ILP 44 per cent to 24 per cent with COP 13 per cent and 19 per cent undecided.
In Diego Martin, PNM leads ILP 38 per cent to 29 per cent with COP 15 per cent, and 18 per cent undecided.In San Juan/Laventille, PNM leads UNC 40 per cent to 23 per cent with ILP 21 per cent, and 16 per cent undecided.The election is a long way off and with a large percentage of undecideds, the outcome could change by voting day, the poll noted.NACTA is also polling other corporations to determine popular support with the findings to be released soon.